The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

in protecting the integrity of critical networks, cable transports, servers, the software that supports
financial systems, and national-security related information as it would other sovereign parts of
the United States. This competition will likely feature the increased ability to damage important
industrial machinery, and to inflict physical damage – both widely or precise as necessary –
through connected and compromised robotic and autonomous systems.
Some states may also integrate cyber warfare capabilities at the operational and tactical levels of
war, attempting to degrade military networks in order to adversely affect the Joint Force as it
deploys or operates in the field. Cyberspace adds a new dimension to the future security
environment, allowing military operations to reach across the globe and down to the individual
desktop, server, router, or controller chipset level. Where land and naval power intersect in two
dimensions, air and space in three, cyberspace intersects with other domains in thousands, or even
millions of ways. This presents many new vulnerable points through which weapons systems, and
the circuitry and software upon which they rely, will be directly engaged.
In the future, the physical structure of cyberspace will be extremely vulnerable to attack by an
array of destructive weapons, including high-power microwave munitions and laser systems which
are increasingly effective against digitized, miniaturized, and integrated circuits. Additionally,
hypersonic weapons and robotic swarms will increase the tempo of conflict and will be countered
by the development of artificial intelligence for battlespace characterization and management. The
Joint Force will be required to consider the nature of these advanced artificial systems and how to
both defeat and protect systems that reside within the cyber domain.
Context 6: Shattered and Reordered Regions
The inability of states in certain areas of the world to provide stable and legitimate governance
will continue to be a significant cause of conflict and war in the future. Stressed by the pace of
economic and geopolitical change and not possessing sufficient margins to absorb or adapt to
future shocks, weak states might be unable or unwilling to take advantage of commercial
opportunities within the global economy. A lack of education and infrastructure might preclude
participation in some cases while authoritarian governments might also purposely attempt to
isolate its people from external influence. Furthermore, local populations will, through social
media, be able to readily the contrast the failure of their governments with economic growth and
opportunity in other parts of the world. In 2035,
the United States will confront a steady decline in
the legitimacy of state authorities unable to
adequately govern in many parts of the world.
Character of Conflict
“…a number of states have erupted into mass violence stemming from internal conflict.
Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts. Some are civil wars. Others take on the form of
revolutions. Many result in complex humanitarian emergencies. Though the dynamics may
differ in each case, all of these conflicts stem from social, economic, and political pressures
that have not been managed by professional, legitimate, and representative state
institutions.” 38
38
U.S. Fund for Peace, Fragile States Index, (2015).
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