The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World

This in turn led to the creation of local Somali militias to protect their fisheries. These groups then
transformed to conduct piracy against international shipping off the Horn of Africa. Eventually,
these disruptions encouraged even more consequential and far reaching effects, including
accelerating the re-emergence of global Chinese naval power.
Military Competitive Space
“More and more of what goes on in other countries matters for the health and safety of the
United States and the rest of the world. Many of the new dangers—such as health
pandemics and transnational terrorist violence—stem from the weakness of states rather
than their strength.” 39
A wide range of insurgents, transnational extremists, and other states are likely to exploit failures
by central governments. This environment will include a shifting array of alliances, partnerships,
and relationships featuring, among others, transnational terrorist organizations, global cyber
activist networks, private military firms, mercenary groups, and super-empowered individuals.
New forms of “shadow” governance will likely emerge where organizations the United States
deems illegal or illegitimate begin to fulfill citizens’ needs, and problematically, are seen as
legitimate by the local population.
Urban centers may become sources of power for insurgent groups by linking them to the wider
global black market economy, as they seek to seize control and provide quasi-governance.
Ungoverned urban zones are likely to permit the development of new or expanded black markets,
including illicit flows of goods, drugs, weapons, currency, and human trafficking. As distinctions
between terrorist financial operations and criminal activities continue to blur, the transactional
connections between unlawful organizations are likely to confuse the distinction between law
enforcement and military action. Additionally, the potential exists for better-resourced terrorist
groups to operate more freely across geographic boundaries and exploit jurisdictional gray areas.
Competitor states will exploit weak sovereignty in neighboring states to assert the preeminence of
their own national interests and potentially incorporate shattered regions into their own spheres of
influence. These assertive states will attempt to reconnect fragile and failing states to their
economic and political systems and employ a variety of means to interfere in the internal affairs
of those states. They will do so by exploiting the information environment, creating pretexts for
action through propaganda, political subversion, and the targeted coercion of leadership.
In some cases, open intervention, including the outright invasion of a sovereign neighbor nation
might occur and lead to large-scale, state-on-state conflict. However, there is a greater likelihood
that stronger states will expand their use of covert and irregular tactics against weaker neighbors
in an effort to internally fracture them. For example, recently fractured states around the Russian
periphery present a number of levers that Russia may use to expand its influence and reorient
economic and political interests. Strong external powers may also seek to fracture weak states as
a way to undermine U.S. regional interests or distract the United States from other more important
or consequential priorities.
39
John Ikenberry, “A World of Our Making,” Democracy, (Summer 2011).
38