Climate Action 2010-2011

Energy and Mitigation
using nuclear power reduced the cumulative emissions
from generating power during that period by over a fifth.
Clearly, if the present nuclear capacity were to be phased
out, it would make the goal of decarbonising electricity
supply an even more challenging and distant prospect.
…and could contribute even more
Nuclear power technology has been developed over more
than 50 years, and the latest designs for nuclear power
plants incorporate best-practice knowledge. In recent
years, a number of governments have also reassessed
their approach to nuclear energy and now view it as an
important part of their energy strategy. Others, however,
continue to believe that nuclear should not be part of
their energy supply mix.
Scenarios for future electricity supply prepared by the
International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Nuclear
Energy Agency (NEA) in the Nuclear Energy technology
Roadmap (2010), based on a reduction of CO 2
emissions
to around half of 2005 levels by 2050, show that nuclear
power has a vital role to play, alongside improved energy
end-use efficiency, a major expansion of renewables,
and carbon capture and storage (CCS) from fossil fuel
burning. These scenarios envisage a nuclear capacity
of around 1,200 GWe by 2050, compared with 370
Gigawatt electrical (GWe) today – an expansion of
over 300 per cent. This would require the completion of
around 20 large nuclear plants (of 1.5 GWe each) per
year during the 2020s, rising to 25 to 30 plants per year
in the 2040s. In its Nuclear Energy Outlook (2008), the
NEA found that nuclear capacity could reach
1,400 GWe by 2050 under its ‘high’ scenario, through
an even stronger expansion in the 2040s.
The IEA and the NEA
projections indicate that nuclear
energy could provide around a
quarter of global electricity with
almost no CO 2
emissions.
Clearly, these scenarios would require mobilising
much greater industrial, human and financial resources
than currently exist. Such expansion would take years
to achieve, not least because it would require large-scale
investment and a major increase in the workforce with
the necessary skills and training. However, governments
are aware of this issue and are beginning to address it.
The major expansion of nuclear power in the 1970s
and 1980s indicates that, given strong policy support,
nuclear power can expand rapidly. During the 1980s,
nuclear plant completions peaked at over 30 units per
year, with an average of 22 units per year over the decade.
Although these were smaller than many current designs,
the technology was also less well-developed at that time.
In addition, relatively few countries were involved in
that expansion, and overall global industrial capacity
was significantly smaller. Much of the future expansion
of electricity supply will take place in large developing
countries. Foremost among them are China and India,
both of which are already embarking on ambitious
nuclear programmes.
Three facts about nuclear energy
The IEA and the NEA projections indicate that
nuclear energy could provide around a quarter of global
electricity with almost no CO 2
emissions. However,
critics of nuclear power remain concerned about safety,
disposal of nuclear waste and the proliferation of nuclear
materials and technologies. While there will always
be some people opposed to nuclear energy and other
complex technologies, we believe that the challenges
of nuclear waste and proliferation can be convincingly
addressed to the satisfaction of broad majorities in
different countries.
It is worth recalling three facts in this context.
Safety: The safety record of nuclear power continues
to improve against all the measures used to assess the
level of good performance, including worker safety,
environmental impacts and frequencies of incidents.
Only one incident has occurred in a Western reactor
and there were no fatalities or injuries. While the major
accident at Chernobyl was an enormous tragedy, the
safety record of modern reactors is at the highest level,
especially in comparison with other energy producing
technologies. This must not lead to complacency,
nuclear will always require strict supervision and
special safeguards, but its safety performance must be
measured according to the same yardstick that is used
for other technologies.
Waste: In OECD countries, nuclear waste, including
high-level wastes and spent fuel, have been stored for
the past 50 years without a single major incident. Most
of these wastes have been stored on-site at nuclear
power plants in water-filled pools or encapsulated in
special containers of vitrified glass in concrete lined
holes or appropriately shielded rooms. While a period of
cooling is necessary after removing from the reactor, this
cannot be a definite solution. That is why several of our
member countries are building or are planning to build
long-term facilities for final disposal. Again, while all
possible safeguards need to be taken, the challenges here
are comparable with those for hazardous wastes from
other industries and the major impediments are political
commitments and public acceptance.
Nuclear proliferation: Proliferation is certainly a
challenge to the international community. However,
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has
concluded safeguards agreements with more than 170
countries to date. Comprehensive safeguards agreement
and additional protocols reinforcing verifications are
concluded with more than 90 countries. Last year,
the first international nuclear fuel bank was set up in
order to ensure supply and prevent the spreading of
enrichment facilities. Nuclear materials are probably the
most rigorously controlled and internationally monitored
materials under international watch.
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