Climate Action 2010-2011

Energy and Mitigation
The ‘sleeping giant’ of renewable energy is waking up.
© Creative commons/flickr/Slava Sizov
Dormant
renewables
in Russia
Time to wake up
Elena Merle-Béral
Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency (IEA)
global low-carbon revolution is needed if we are
A to keep global warming beneath the considered
safe limit of two degrees. Russia, as the world’s largest
producer and exporter of fossil fuels, can and must
be part of this revolution. It has huge renewable
energy resources that, unlike its fossil fuel reserves,
have hardly been developed. However, there are signs
that the sleeping giant of renewable energy is waking
up. Elena Merle-Béral from the IEA discusses the
prospects of developing renewable energy in Russia.
Global low-carbon revolution
The IEA publication, World Energy Outlook 2009
(WEO-2009) demonstrates that the world needs a rapid
and comprehensive transformation in the way we produce,
transport and use energy in order to limit the rise in global
temperatures. WEO-2009 Reference Scenario provides
a baseline picture of how global energy markets would
evolve if governments made no changes to their existing
policies and measures. In contrast, the 450 Scenario shows
a world in which collective policy action is taken to limit
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
to 450 parts per million of CO 2
equivalent (ppm CO 2
-eq),
which corresponds to a global temperature increase of two
degrees celsius. The 450 Scenario depicts in detail where
and how the abatement should take place.
Figure 1 shows the kind of technology efforts needed to
achieve the 450 Scenario in Russia. It demonstrates that
renewable energy is the second most significant element
in achieving CO 2
emissions cuts after energy efficiency,
particularly up to 2020. By 2030, renewables would account
for one third of the total Russian abatement potential,
or 190 million tonnes of CO 2
(MtCO 2
). This would
require significant additional investments compared to the
Reference Scenario, but would also result in considerable
economic, environmental and social benefits for Russia.
Russia today
Russia’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels. Natural
gas accounts for over half of total primary energy supply
(TPES), and coal and oil combined account for another 38
per cent. Renewable energy and energy from waste account
for only three per cent of Russian TPES (Figure 2).
However, the share of renewable energy in electricity
generation was around 16 per cent in 2008. This is rather
high compared to some IEA countries such as Poland
or the Czech Republic that do not have significant
hydroenergy resources. However, in many other IEA
countries, including Norway, Austria and Canada
renewable energy accounts for over 60 per cent of total
electricity production (Figure 3).
Figures 2 and 3 demonstrate that only two renewable
energy sources – large hydro and biomass – noticeably
contribute to Russia’s total energy balance and electricity
generation. The share of other sources – wind, solar,
geothermal or tide – is insignificant. This is despite the
very rich and diverse renewable energy resources available
in Russia. Therefore, Russia could be called a renewable
energy ‘sleeping giant’ that needs to wake up and tap into
its huge potential.
In the early 2000s, Russian experts estimated that
the economic potential (i.e., commercial viable use)
of renewable energy in Russia might correspond to
about 30 per cent of the country’s TPES. Bezrukikh
et al calculated the economic potential of Russia’s
renewables to be more than 189 million tonnes of oil
equivalent (MTOE) per year, or 270 million tonnes of
coal equivalent. Russia’s TPES was 623 MTOE in 2002
and 687 MTOE in 2008. Although the accuracy of
these estimates can be debated, it is clear that Russia has
significant and various renewable energy resources due to
its geological, climate and terrain diversity (IEA, 2003).
Russia has a scientific and technical base for
developing renewable energy. Research and development
on renewables started in the Soviet Union in the 1920s.
Since then, Russia and other former Soviet states such
as Ukraine have developed nearly all currently known
renewable energy technologies. Their cost is lower than
that of western equivalents, although the quality and
reliability is typically lower, too. Following the decline in
industrial production in the 1990s, many idle plants and
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