Climate Action 2014-2015

RESILIENT CITIES
DOUBLING THE
EFFICIENCY OF
THE GLOBAL
VEHICLE FLEET
By Rob de Jong, Head of the Transport Unit, Division of Technology, Industry
and Economics, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
The global vehicle fleet is set to grow to at least double its present size, and almost all
growth will be in low and middle income countries. This will result in major increases in
climate and air pollution emissions. To stabilise emissions the global fleet’s fuel efficiency
needs to double. While developed countries are on track to achieve this, most developing
countries are not making progress. The Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) is supporting
countries to put in place policies that promote cleaner and more efficient vehicles. This has
major climate, health and economic benefits.
Today there are about 1 billion vehicles
on our roads. Two-thirds of these are
found in OECD countries. But as people
in low and middle income countries get
more disposable income, owning a private
vehicle is on top of their list. Predictions
show that the global fleet will at least
double, maybe even triple – and that
almost all of that growth will take place in
non-OECD countries. Actually the non-
OECD fleet could increase five- or even
tenfold. As a result, close to three-quarters
of the global fleet is predicted to be found
in non-OECD countries by 2050.
It is crucial that the world develops new
mobility models that do not depend on
individual car use, through better urban
planning, public transport, cycling and
walking, etc. However, in any scenario
we see a massive increase in the global
fleet. This means we also need to ensure
we improve the vehicles.
Billion light duty passenger vehicles
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OECD Non-OECD
Figure 1. IEA growth prediction for light-duty vehicles, 2005 to 2050
Source: IEA Global Energy Perspectives, 2012
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