Climate Action 2014-2015

RESILIENT CITIES
Today the transport sector is responsible
for one-quarter of global energy-related
climate emissions. This is set to increase
to one-third, growing more rapidly than
any other sector. Other impacts include
air pollution, dependency on fossil fuels
and energy use, and congestion.
VEHICLE EMISSIONS – THE
GOOD AND BAD NEWS
If we could double the efficiency of the
average car – going from about 8 litres
per 100km today to 4 litres per 100km –
we could stabilise the CO 2
emissions of
the global fleet.
The good news is that this is what is
happening in OECD countries. We
are experiencing an unprecedented
improvement in fuel economy around
the world. The US, EU, Japan and
others are on the way to achieving this
target of doubling the efficiency of
their fleet by 2030.
However, low and middle income
countries are lagging behind – most
non-OECD countries are making little
improvement in the efficiency of their
fleet. Interestingly even countries fully
dependent on OECD car imports also do
not improve their fuel economy. So that
means that the technology is available but
the policies are not in place to make use
of this. Only a few developing countries
have policies in place that incentivise
more efficient and cleaner cars.
A SMALL WINDOW OF
MAJOR OPPORTUNITY
We need to ensure that the right policies
and incentives are in place so that non-
OECD countries improve their fuel
economy and get the benefits that stem
from this: not only air quality and climate
benefits, but also economic benefits due
to reduced fuel consumption. We only
have a small window of opportunity to
get these policies in place before fleets
will have grown out of hand – maybe five
to eight years.
Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, is set to
have more residents than London by
2030. Nairobi’s car fleet is doubling in
size every six years. Kenya imports its
OECD
average
Non-
OECD
average
Global
average
GFEI
target
average fuel economy
(Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate
(% per year)
average fuel economy
(Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate
(% per year)
average fuel economy
(Lge/100km)
annual improvement rate
(% per year)
average fuel economy
(Lge/100km)
required annual
improvement
(% per year)
"Close to three-quarters
of the global fleet is predicted
to be found in non-OECD
countries by 2050."
vehicles mainly from Japan, and most
are used vehicles of five to eight years
old. The average fuel economy of its
fleet has been stable at about 7.7 litres
per 100km. While cars coming in are
increasingly more efficient, vehicle size
is also going up. Kenya is now working
with UNEP to put in place policies
that will incentivise cleaner and more
efficient cars, including a taxation reform
that will see increased taxes on cars as
they get heavier and more polluting, and
decreased taxes on cleaner vehicles.
COSTS AND BENEFITS
Doubling the efficiency of the global
fleet will have major climate benefits –
it would reduce emissions of CO 2
by
over 1 gigatonne (Gt) a year by 2025,
and over 2 Gt/yr by 2050, and result in
savings in annual oil import bills alone
2005 2008 2011 2030
8.1 7.6 7.0
-2.2% -2.7%
-2.4%
7.5 7.6 7.5
0.4% -0.6%
-0.1%
8.0 7.6 7.2
-1.7% -1.8%
-1.8%
8.0 4.0
-2.7%
2012 base year -3.0%
Table 1. Fuel economy evolution compared to GFEI target
Note: Lge = litres of gasoline equivalent
worth over US$300 billion in 2025 and
$600 billion in 2050 (based on an oil
price of $100 a barrel).
The introduction of cleaner and
more efficient vehicles worldwide is
also essential to improve the rapidly
deteriorating air quality in cities around
the world. The WHO estimates that air
pollution prematurely kills 7 million
people per year, more than any other
pollutant, and global vehicle emissions
are a major contributor.
There are few measures more cost
effective to reduce climate emissions
than improving the efficiency of vehicles.
The benefits of the light-duty vehicle
fuel economy standards in the US are
estimated at US$11.9 billion per year,
while the costs are estimated at $3.3
billion, with CO 2
reductions of 54
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