Our World in 2018

OUR POLITICAL SOCIETIES
Stealing
the
Populists’
Clothes
By Radosław Sikorski
Two cheers for US President
Donald Trump. Without him,
the West would still regard
populism as a problem unique to
Central and Eastern Europe. Yet
Trump’s presidency is as clear a
demonstration as there could be of
the fact that populism is not merely a
product of the alleged “immaturity” of
post-communist countries.
Leo Tolstoy supposedly said that
the further one is from events, the
more inevitable those events seem.
So it is with today’s populist surge. It
wasn’t inevitable that Poland’s Law and
Justice Party (PiS) would come to power
with 38% of the vote in 2015; nor was
it inevitable that Trump would win the
US presidency, despite having received
almost three million fewer votes than
his opponent. In both cases, luck and
the competition’s incompetence played
a role, just as they did in bringing
decidedly liberal forces to power in
France in 2017.
Still, as we head into 2018, we
should recognize that another year of
populist turbulence beckons. After all,
there is nothing new about populist
politics in democracies, whether young
or old. In the nineteenth century, the
“free silver” movement divided the
United States in much the same way
Right-wing populists demonstrate against Merkel in Berlin.
that Brexit divides Britain today.
Populists succeed by exploiting
citizens’ alienation from an
establishment that has failed or is
unable to respond to some salient
challenge – for example, low crop
the 1870s, or migration in the European
Union today. They usually propose
simple solutions to complex problems.
And once in power, they usually fail to
deliver on their promises, but only
after they have spent all the public’s
money. Wise establishmentarians
accommodate some populist
arguments within their own political
programs. After these concessions
are made, emotions tend to cool, and
social stability can be restored.
So, what are the foremost populist
grievances today? Judging by countries
like Poland and Hungary, there are
at least three: class resentment,
demographic despair, and threatened
EPA/PAUL ZINKEN
identities. Each of these grievances has
a legitimate basis, and all need to be
addressed.
Contrary to popular belief, none of
these grievances is strictly economic. In
Poland, incomes have been rising and
inequalities have been falling for 25
years. Yet at the same time, ordinary
people have become increasingly
Still, as we head
into 2018, we
should recognize
that another year of
populist turbulence
beckons.
122 2018 | OUR WORLD