Status of Wisconsin Agriculture 2010 - Agricultural & Applied ...

U.S. Dairy Exports, October and Year-to-date, 2009 vs. 2008
Dairy Product October January-October
Million Lbs. % Change Million Lbs. % Change
Nonfat dry milk 64.5 +19 473.0 -40
Cheese 20.3 -5 191.0 -24
Butter 8.8 -40 39.0 -79
Dry whey 47.0 +13 394.8 -1
Whey protein concentrates 27.2 +33 163.8 +13
Lactose 43.4 +35 403.2 +17
Source: USDA, FAS
of 2008 on a volume basis and even
less on a value basis.
A look at dairy exports for October
2009 indicates some strengthening.
Nonfat dry milk exports for October
were 19 percent higher than 2008,
but year-to-date exports were 40
percent lower. Dry whey exports
were 13 percent higher than a year
ago, and exports of whey protein
concentrates were 33 percent higher
in October and 13 percent higher
year-to-date. Lactose exports were
33 percent higher in October and 17
percent higher year-to-date.
USDA expects exports for 2009 to
be just under 15 billion pounds milk
equivalent, about three-fourths of
what they were in 2008, and equal
to about 8 percent of projected 2009
U.S. milk production.
On a dollar basis, exports for the
first nine months totaled $1.605 billion,
48 percent less than during the
first nine months of 2008. For the
year, exports will exceed $2 billion,
the third highest on record. Nevertheless,
the loss of export volume
in 2009 was equivalent to about 5
billion pounds of milk. This meant
that compared to 2008, about 3 percent
more milk had to clear domestic
markets.
U.S. dairy imports are often blamed
for lower milk prices, but in 2009
imports were lower than a year ago.
For the first nine months of the year,
imports totaled $1.581 billion, down
18 percent, netting a small dairy
trade surplus of $23.6 million. On a
volume basis, during the first nine
months of 2009 the United States
imported 15 percent less cheese, 23
percent less casein, 53 percent less
caseinates, and 8 percent less milk
protein for food use than in the same
period for 2008.
With the slowdown in domestic
sales and the loss of dairy exports, a
recovery of farm milk prices in 2009
required a reduction in milk production,
which in turn required fewer
milk cows. But higher milk prices
during 2007 and most of 2008 had
spurred dairy producers to add
cows. U.S. milk cow numbers
increased every month from May
2007 through January of 2009. The
January 1, 2009 USDA livestock
inventory report showed that milk
cows were up 1 percent, to 9.33 million
milk cows, from a year earlier.
The same report shows that numbers
of replacement heifers had dropped
9,400
9,300
9,200
9,100
9,000
Source: NASS, USDA
December 09 is author’s estimate
18 STATUS OF WISCONSIN AGRICULTURE 2010—CURRENT OUTLOOK: DAIRY
1,000 Head
Jan. 07
Apr. 07
U.S. Milk Cows: 2007-2009
Jul. 07
Oct. 07
Jan. 08
less than 1 percent to 4.41million
head. That represents 48.3 heifers
for every 100 milk cows, more than
enough to expand the U.S. dairy herd.
Low milk prices and poor returns
over feed cost encouraged dairy producers
to slaughter more cows during
the last half of 2008 and
throughout 2009. In addition, three
rounds of the National Milk Producers
Federation CWT herd retirement
program removed about 250,000
cows from the U.S. herd during
2009. As of November 2009, the
number of milk cows had declined
to 9.091 million, 2.6 percent fewer
than a year earlier. Cow numbers
will continue to decline, with the
number of cows for the year averaging
around 9.20 million head, down
1.2 percent from the 2008 average.
Poor returns over feed costs also
slowed the increase in milk production.
While milk production per cow
had increased an average of 1.8 percent
over the previous 10 years, it
increased by just 0.7 percent over
year-earlier levels from January
through June and by 1.6 percent
from July through October. The estimate
for 2009 is an average of 20,
565 pounds, an increase of 0.8 percent.
With 1.2 percent fewer cows
for the year and an average of 0.8
percent more milk per cow, total
milk production for the year is esti-
Apr. 08
Jul. 08
Oct. 08
Jan. 09
Apr. 09
Jul. 09
Oct. 09