Automotive Exports December 2022

Türkiye foresees 5% economic growth for 2022, 2023
The leading indicators of the economy for
the second half of 2022 point to moderate
growth and Türkiye’s gross domestic
product to grow 5% in 2022, amid a global
slowdown, Treasury and Finance Minister
Nureddin Nebati said.
Speaking to Parliament’s Planning and
Budget Committee, Nebati said the
economic growth, expected to maintain its
balanced outlook in 2023, is targeted to be
5% again next year.
“In a period when challenging global
conditions are experienced and the global
conjuncture is changing rapidly, the
‘Türkiye Economy Model’ aims to ensure
macroeconomic and financial stability and
price stability simultaneously, to encourage
high value-added production, to turn the
change in supply chains into an opportunity
and to permanently solve the current
account deficit problem,” Nebati reiterated.
Stating that a significant improvement was
achieved in the non-energy current account
balance, significant gains were achieved in
investment, employment, production and
exports, Nebati said, “In this period when
the risk of recession has increased for
many developed and developing countries,
the Turkish economy continues to grow
strongly thanks to our model, and the
composition of the growth also displays a
balanced outlook.”
“Türkiye is the fastest growing country in
the G-20 with a GDP growth of 11.4% in
2021 and recorded the highest growth rate
in the last 50 years,” he said.
Nebati noted that some 6.6 points of this
growth come from domestic demand and
4.8 points from net foreign demand and
the net foreign demand to growth is the
highest figure reached after 2001.
“Despite the uncertainty caused by the
war between Russia and Ukraine and the
weakening global economy, our gross
domestic product grew by 7.5% in real
terms in the first half of 2022,” he said,
noting: “With a growth rate of 7.6% as of
the second quarter, Turkey was among
the fastest growing countries in the OECD.
In the first half of the year, our economy
maintained its balanced outlook in line
with our sustainable and healthy growth
target.”
Goldman Sachs and Moody’s have also
raised recently their forecast for Türkiye’s
2022 economic growth. Goldman Sachs
said it revised upward its GDP growth
forecast for Türkiye for this year to 5.5%
from 3.5% while lifting its 2022 current
account deficit forecast to $45 billion from
$36 billion. Moody’s also said in a report
in September that it raised its 2022 growth
estimate to 4.5%, up from 3.5%.
Nebati further commented that total
employment in the country rose above
the pre-pandemic period and reached
historically high levels.
Emphasizing that exports continue to
break historical records, Nebati stated that
with the steps taken within the scope of
the Turkish Economy Model, exporters
succeeded in turning the disruptions in the
global supply chain into opportunities and
made exports the locomotive of growth.
“Our exports broke a record in every month
of 2022 and reached the highest level in
the history of the republic, exceeding the
annualized $253 billion in October.”
Nebati stated that total imports increased
with energy imports, which remained high
due to rising global energy prices.
Pointing out that tourism has grown
at a rate above the world average and
outperformed its pre-pandemic levels,
Nebati noted that they expect the course of
tourism to continue for the rest of the year
and a performance well above the record
revenue in 2019.
Nebati said, “While the current account
balance gives a deficit due to energy
imports, the current account balance
excluding energy continues to have a
surplus.”
Nebati stated that the country aims to
permanently improve the current account
balance in the medium and long term with
the policies implemented.
Apart from the investments made in the
renewables sector, the country aims to
reduce foreign dependency on energy
and to further reduce the pressure on
the current account balance and external
financing needs by commissioning the
natural gas discovered in the Black Sea by
2023, he added.
Speaking on the fight against inflation,
Nebati stated that they gave up TL 276.8
billion ($14.89 billion) of tax revenue this
year as part of this. Drawing attention
to the tax cuts aimed at increasing the
purchasing power and welfare of the
citizens, Nebati said that they also support
the most basic expenditures of the citizens.
Reminding that they provide an 80%
subsidy for natural gas used in households
and 50% subsidies for electricity, Nebati
said, “We provide electricity consumption
support up to 150 kilowatt-hours to 2.1
million households. Our target is to increase
this support to 4 million households.”
December 2022 48