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As an estimate of influenza-related admissions and bed days, the
hospital bed requirement for acute medical cases during periods
of influenza epidemics has been compared with non-epidemic
periods. This method underestimates the actual number of admissions
due to influenza as influenza-related admission also occurs
when there is not an influenza epidemic. Compared with other
methods of calculation this method is considered to be the best
estimate.
During a 28-year observation period (1968-1996) there have been
13 epidemics. On average, the epidemics have resulted in approximately
860 excess deaths among persons over the age of 65, which
corresponds to approximately 400 excess deaths annually; a number
which might be reduced through preventive measures. After
the epidemics there has been no indication that mortality has been
reduced more than expected. Consequently, it may be assumed
that it is not only the weakest persons who die prematurely due to
influenza. The relative excess mortality has largely been the same
for men and women, for persons living in rural districts and urban
areas, and among the younger of the elderly (those between the
ages of 65 and 74) and the older of the elderly (those over the age
of 75).
Assuming that the persons who die from influenza had the same
remaining life expectancy before they contracted influenza as
other elderly persons of the same age and sex, it can be calculated
that influenza epidemics are on average responsible for the loss of
approximately 3,150 years of life per annum. Assuming that no
one is vaccinated, it can be calculated that influenza epidemics on
average result in approximately 8,700 additional bed days per
annum.
A calculation has shown that 17 vaccinations are required to avoid
a single case of influenza.
If the expected clinical effect of a vaccination offer ensuring that
70 per cent of the elderly who are over the age of 65 are vaccinated
is compared with the hypothetical situation that no elderly people
are vaccinated, the approximate values presented in the table
below result.
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