Baltic Rim Economies - Baltic Port List

Expert article 896 Baltic Rim Economies, 21.12.2011 Quarterly Review 5�2011
Strong recovery in maritime transport volumes stalled with economic
uncertainty
By Elisa Holma
The year 2010 was time for growth and strong recovery in
cargo volumes in the Baltic Sea ports. Also this year started
with favourable economic development in all of the nine Baltic
Sea countries. Foreign trade increased especially during the
first half, but towards the end of the year, development has
been slowing down and even stalled. However, in many ports,
total cargo volumes are expected to reach higher levels than in
2010. The expectations for growth in 2012 are rather modest
and cautious, being overshadowed by the prospect of a new
economic recession.
Recovering cargo volumes in the Baltic Sea ports in 2010
In 2010, Baltic Sea ports handled a total of 809 million tons of
cargo (+9% y-o-y), after a dramatic drop of 10% in 2009.
Cargo volumes increased in all Baltic Sea countries except for
Denmark (Baltic Sea coast) and Latvia, where diminished
transports of fossil fuels kept the cargo volumes at a slightly
lower level than in 2009. The annual growth was strongest in
Poland (+32% to 60 million tonnes), and in Estonia (+20% to
46 million tonnes). In both Poland and Estonia, strong growth
was seen in all cargo types. In general, international imports,
which faced the biggest falls in volumes in 2009, increased
more than exports in the Baltic Sea ports (+14% and +6%
respectively). Measured in total cargo volumes, Sweden
regained its leading position in the Baltic Sea, with a share of
more than a fifth. Sweden was closely followed by Russia,
where volumes are largely composed of oil exports.
The volumes of all cargo types in international traffic
increased in 2010. Strongest growth was seen in non-bulk
cargoes (+17%), which had seen the deepest fall the year
before. This class includes for example containers, where the
volumes increased the most (+27%). Liquid bulk remained
clearly the largest type of cargo handled in the Baltic Sea
ports, with a total volume of 305 million tonnes (+1%). Dry bulk
cargoes in international traffic were handled 190 million tonnes
(+12% y-o-y).
Despite the strong growth, total volumes were still 2% (-17
mln tonnes) behind the peak volumes of the year 2007, nonbulk
cargoes lagging the furthest behind peak volumes. In
2010, other than bulk cargoes were handled 8% less than in
2007, and dry bulk 4% less. Instead, liquid bulk cargoes
reached the peak volumes in 2010.
Primorsk, St. Petersburg and Gothenburg remained the
three biggest ports in the Baltic Sea in 2010. Most of the ten
biggest ports were located in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea,
four of these being located in the Gulf of Finland.
Fig. 1. Cargo handled in the Baltic Sea ports by country and
annual growth rate (%) in 2010. Source: Baltic Port List
2011.
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Slowing growth and uncertainty this year
Year 2011 started with favourable economic development in all
of the Baltic Sea countries. Especially the first half of the year
seemed encouraging, but towards the end of the year the
expectations for growth have weakened and common
economic uncertainty has increased.
The Baltic Sea region countries still have not recovered
completely from the previous recession caused by the global
financial crisis. Each country around the Baltic Sea has
proceeded somewhat at its own pace when it comes to
economic growth. During the autumn, general uncertainty in
the global and European economies started again to weaken
significantly both companies’ and consumers’ trust towards
economic growth. In September, IMF forecasted GDP growth
for the nine Baltic Sea countries together to be 3.3% this year
and 2.3% next year, but predictions of a new recession have
already been heard.
The amount of maritime cargo traffic in the Baltic Sea kept
rising during the first half of the year. Total volumes handled by
the 20 biggest ports increased appr. 7.5% in January-June
2011, year-on-year. As a result of a strong beginning of the
year, most ports are expecting higher volumes to be handled
this year than in 2010.
Modest growth expectations for the year 2012
According to the Baltic Port Barometer survey, carried out in
August-September, the ports have cautious, yet optimistic,
expectations for the year 2012. Modest growth is expected in
cargo volumes in 2012, but at the same time the expectations
are overshadowed by the prospect of a new economic
recession. The brightest outlook is seen among the ports
located in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea.
However, expectations for the year 2012 have clearly
come down compared to predictions given in 2010 for the year
2011. Baltic Port Index (BPI), which gives an overview of the
ports’ expectations for the year to come, has halved from last
year. BPI is now at 21 (last year at 50), meaning that the ports’
expectations have weakened, but they still remain positive.
The volumes of all cargo types are expected to increase in
the Baltic Sea, but expectations for bulk cargoes are more
modest compared to non-bulk cargoes. Within non-bulk cargo,
growth is expected especially in containers.
The article is based on an annual market data package,
published by the Centre for Maritime Studies at the University
of Turku. The package includes three publications: Baltic Port
List, Baltic Port Insight and Baltic Port Barometer. Of these
three, Baltic Port List 2011 includes detailed port statistics on
2010 and time series since 2006, Baltic Port Insight gives an
overview of the current year in the Baltic Sea countries and
ports, and Baltic Port Barometer provides information on Baltic
Sea port development trends by assessing the business and
traffic prospects across the BSR over short-term, year-on-year.
Elisa Holma
Researcher
Centre for Maritime Studies
at the University of Turku
Finland
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