Expert article 896 <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Rim</strong> <strong>Economies</strong>, 21.12.2011 Quarterly Review 5�2011 Strong recovery in maritime transport volumes stalled with economic uncertainty By Elisa Holma The year 2010 was time for growth and strong recovery in cargo volumes in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports. Also this year started with favourable economic development in all of the nine <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea countries. Foreign trade increased especially during the first half, but towards the end of the year, development has been slowing down and even stalled. However, in many ports, total cargo volumes are expected to reach higher levels than in 2010. The expectations for growth in 2012 are rather modest and cautious, being overshadowed by the prospect of a new economic recession. Recovering cargo volumes in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports in 2010 In 2010, <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports handled a total of 809 million tons of cargo (+9% y-o-y), after a dramatic drop of 10% in 2009. Cargo volumes increased in all <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea countries except for Denmark (<strong>Baltic</strong> Sea coast) and Latvia, where diminished transports of fossil fuels kept the cargo volumes at a slightly lower level than in 2009. The annual growth was strongest in Poland (+32% to 60 million tonnes), and in Estonia (+20% to 46 million tonnes). In both Poland and Estonia, strong growth was seen in all cargo types. In general, international imports, which faced the biggest falls in volumes in 2009, increased more than exports in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports (+14% and +6% respectively). Measured in total cargo volumes, Sweden regained its leading position in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea, with a share of more than a fifth. Sweden was closely followed by Russia, where volumes are largely composed of oil exports. The volumes of all cargo types in international traffic increased in 2010. Strongest growth was seen in non-bulk cargoes (+17%), which had seen the deepest fall the year before. This class includes for example containers, where the volumes increased the most (+27%). Liquid bulk remained clearly the largest type of cargo handled in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports, with a total volume of 305 million tonnes (+1%). Dry bulk cargoes in international traffic were handled 190 million tonnes (+12% y-o-y). Despite the strong growth, total volumes were still 2% (-17 mln tonnes) behind the peak volumes of the year 2007, nonbulk cargoes lagging the furthest behind peak volumes. In 2010, other than bulk cargoes were handled 8% less than in 2007, and dry bulk 4% less. Instead, liquid bulk cargoes reached the peak volumes in 2010. Primorsk, St. Petersburg and Gothenburg remained the three biggest ports in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea in 2010. Most of the ten biggest ports were located in the eastern part of the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea, four of these being located in the Gulf of Finland. Fig. 1. Cargo handled in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports by country and annual growth rate (%) in 2010. Source: <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> <strong>List</strong> 2011. 52 Slowing growth and uncertainty this year Year 2011 started with favourable economic development in all of the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea countries. Especially the first half of the year seemed encouraging, but towards the end of the year the expectations for growth have weakened and common economic uncertainty has increased. The <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea region countries still have not recovered completely from the previous recession caused by the global financial crisis. Each country around the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea has proceeded somewhat at its own pace when it comes to economic growth. During the autumn, general uncertainty in the global and European economies started again to weaken significantly both companies’ and consumers’ trust towards economic growth. In September, IMF forecasted GDP growth for the nine <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea countries together to be 3.3% this year and 2.3% next year, but predictions of a new recession have already been heard. The amount of maritime cargo traffic in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea kept rising during the first half of the year. Total volumes handled by the 20 biggest ports increased appr. 7.5% in January-June 2011, year-on-year. As a result of a strong beginning of the year, most ports are expecting higher volumes to be handled this year than in 2010. Modest growth expectations for the year 2012 According to the <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Barometer survey, carried out in August-September, the ports have cautious, yet optimistic, expectations for the year 2012. Modest growth is expected in cargo volumes in 2012, but at the same time the expectations are overshadowed by the prospect of a new economic recession. The brightest outlook is seen among the ports located in the eastern part of the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea. However, expectations for the year 2012 have clearly come down compared to predictions given in 2010 for the year 2011. <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Index (BPI), which gives an overview of the ports’ expectations for the year to come, has halved from last year. BPI is now at 21 (last year at 50), meaning that the ports’ expectations have weakened, but they still remain positive. The volumes of all cargo types are expected to increase in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea, but expectations for bulk cargoes are more modest compared to non-bulk cargoes. Within non-bulk cargo, growth is expected especially in containers. The article is based on an annual market data package, published by the Centre for Maritime Studies at the University of Turku. The package includes three publications: <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> <strong>List</strong>, <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Insight and <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Barometer. Of these three, <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> <strong>List</strong> 2011 includes detailed port statistics on 2010 and time series since 2006, <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Insight gives an overview of the current year in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea countries and ports, and <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> Barometer provides information on <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea port development trends by assessing the business and traffic prospects across the BSR over short-term, year-on-year. Elisa Holma Researcher Centre for Maritime Studies at the University of Turku Finland � Pan-European Institute � To receive a free copy please register at www.tse.fi/pei �
Expert article 896 <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Rim</strong> <strong>Economies</strong>, 21.12.2011 Quarterly Review 5�2011 Fig. 2. Total cargo volumes in the <strong>Baltic</strong> Sea ports by country in 2006-2010. Source: <strong>Baltic</strong> <strong>Port</strong> <strong>List</strong> 2011. 53 � Pan-European Institute � To receive a free copy please register at www.tse.fi/pei �
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