Baltic Rim Economies - Baltic Port List

Expert article 916 Baltic Rim Economies, 21.12.2011 Quarterly Review 5�2011
changes of the transport situation and the related effects
dependent on the potential growth rte of international
economy, the ability of the EU to support major
infrastructure projects in the future and the ability and
motivation of the region under observation to operate
proactively and to coordinate activities. The initial analysis
of the scenarios shows that in case of continued normal
growth of the international economy and
retained/strengthened strategic capability of the EU it is
possible to foresee continued integration of the EU’s
Eastern edge countries as well as significant increase of
transport volumes and the continued important role of the
transport and logistics sector as an economic growth
engine. The conclusion is based primarily on the following
positions:
� Rail Baltic becomes not merely a rail link between the
three Baltic states and Central Europe, but will probably
handle a rather large cargo flow related to Finland;
� The two important components of this cargo flow are,
first, Finland’s increasing trade with Latvia, Lithuania
and central Europe (possibly also with the Southeastern
direction) and, secondly, the East Asian cargo flow from
the Arctic Ocean, which will at least partly move
southward across Finland;
� While at present it is maritime transport, which primarily
suffers from the stricter norms concerning sulphur
pollution, it can be presumed in the longer run that
ecological criteria applied to all modes of transport will
continue the already existing policy of driving the
transport from the roads to railways and to the sea. This
will mean the continued competitiveness of logistics
schemes based on the combination of maritime and rail
traffic.
� The mobility of the people will increase with the rising of
the living standards, the mobility pattern will become
more diverse;
� The Helsinki-Tallinn integration will increase; the
emergence of the twin city will significantly boost the
need for transport. It is possible that in the further future
this will lead to the construction of a Helsinki-Tallinn
tunnel;
� The North-South and East-West transport corridors
would not compete in the longer perspective, but will
mutually strengthen each other. Fast rail link to the core
of Europe will crease premises for logistics and
distribution centres, which can handle the movement of
cargos not only in the North-South, but also in the East-
West direction. There will be better opportunities for
providing warehousing and value adding services to
enterprises in Northwestern Russia in handling their
products moving to Europe.
� Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will gradually turn into an
increasingly integrated economic space, where
international firms, largely based on the Nordic capital,
can specialise and cooperate. This will be related,
among other factors, to the increasing cargo volumes;
� In case of increasing cost of aviation fuel the Rail Baltic
can successfully compete with air traffic in longer
distances;
81
� Although a large share of the present intra-industrial
trade between Finland and the Baltic states would
disappear with the reduction of the wage gap and other
price gaps of production input, it would be replaced by a
new type of intra-industrial trade, based largely on
balanced cooperation, both concerning manufactured
goods and services. The “less distant” Central Europe,
thanks to good rail connections, will increase the market
of the firms operating in the Baltic states (and Finland),
their competitiveness in the value chain of goods and
services for the European market will improve. This will
accelerate the modernisation of the structure of goods
being produced in the Baltic states.
Well functioning transport connections both for
passenger and cargo transport are a vital premise for trade
and the development of closer forms of integration. The
transport projects of the Eastern Baltic countries like the
Rail Baltica, Via Baltica, the construction of large port
terminals, incl. for handling transcontinental cargos, etc, will
presume good international cooperation and the EU
support, but their realisation is a significant factor in
bridging the development gap between the new EU
member countries and the Nordic countries so as to
contribute to the development of the entire Baltic Sea
region.
Erik Terk
Professor, Director
Tallinn University
Estonian Institute for Futures Studies
Jüri Sakkeus
H-T Transplan Research Coordinator
Tallinn University
Estonian Institute for Futures Studies
Estonia
� Pan-European Institute � To receive a free copy please register at www.tse.fi/pei �