Baltic Rim Economies - Baltic Port List

Expert article 910 Baltic Rim Economies, 21.12.2011 Quarterly Review 5�2011
Finland, and migration in the Baltic Sea Region
By Ismo Söderling
The current population of Finland is approximately 5.3
million. Just like the inhabitants of the other Nordic
countries, many Finns have emigrated over time. The
biggest migrations were directed at North America in the
late 1800s and Sweden after the Second World War.
Currently about 600,000 people in the United States claim
Finnish heritage in the census, and in Sweden, the
corresponding number is about 400,000. Finland is
different from the other Nordic countries in that post-war
emigration in particular has been quite active. In the case
of Sweden the main attraction was our westerly neighbor’s
economic boom-time and Finland’s own mass
unemployment. In that respect, the migration to Sweden is
somewhat similar to the current migration from Estonia to
Finland.
Of Finland’s inhabitants 2.7 % are foreign nationals; in
other words, a substantially lower percentage than the
EU27 average of 6.4 %. As a matter of fact, Finland’s figure
is the lowest in all of Western Europe; in the EU’s present
composition the only countries that lag behind Finland in
relative terms are all former Socialist countries.
The size of the foreign population in Finland depends
on how it is defined. The statistics below give an indication
of the number of people with immigrant backgrounds
currently living in Finland.
� At the end of 2010, there were 225,000 people in
Finland who spoke a foreign language (i.e. not
Finnish, Swedish or Sami).
� Approximately 168,000 foreign nationals were living in
the country.
� There were 195,000 foreign-born people who spoke a
language other than Finnish.
Depending on the criteria for defining “foreigners”, the
difference between the different immigrant categories can
be as much as 30 %. The biggest immigrant groups had
moved to Finland from Estonia and Russia.
What is the future of immigration to Finland?
In 1995, when I gave a lecture on immigration, I
commented that “I assume that in twenty years, there will
be approximately 200,000 immigrants living in Finland, in
other words, four times their current number”. The scale of
my prediction roused some polemics among the audience
and the other presenters. In the space of 15 years,
however, we had already reached that number. What about
going forward? It is always difficult to predict the future, but
we do have a few demographic facts at our disposal. Our
current fertility rate is 1.85 – despite the high level, it
nevertheless remains below natural population growth.
According to an estimate by Statistics Finland, mortality will
surpass births in Finland by 2036. If the prediction is
accurate, Finland’s population growth will rely solely on
immigration after that point.
But who are the potential new arrivals? That will
certainly depend on the immigration policy practiced in our
country. At the moment Finland has no active immigration
policy. In terms of present immigration, one-third of
immigrants come for employment-related reasons while
two-thirds come because of family or educational reasons.
In most other Western nations, this ratio is the reverse.
We will probably not see a major change in the main
migration flows soon. The so-called great migrations from
71
Russia have not yet occurred, so the pressure to migrate
from there to Finland will probably continue. The same is
true for Estonia – though with certain caveats: some of the
migration pressure from Estonia toward Finland may morph
into work commuting. Estonians might work in Finland but
still keep their home in Estonia. Asians, on the other hand,
are well-known for their strong family networks and hence
we will probably continue to see ongoing migration to
Finland from Vietnam, India, China and Thailand.
In an article published in 1994, I wrote as follows:
“The real migration pressure toward Europe comes
from the Islamic countries in the Mediterranean Region.
Two factors increase the likelihood of such migration: first,
there is a decades-long tradition of migration to Europe.
Second, population growth in the region is reaching
proportions that will inevitably lead to some degree of
migration pressure. For example, in Central Europe, there
is one person under the age of 20 for each 60-year-old. In
North Africa, the same ratio is 10 young people for each
60-year-old. The populations of Algeria, Morocco and
Tunisia are expected to double over the next 25 years. In
addition, many less-developed Third World countries suffer
from political instability (Algeria, for example) and economic
recession. Leaving the Sahara behind and looking toward
Europe will certainly be a challenge for Hassan”.
There are probably about 10 million immigrants from
North African countries currently living in Western Europe,
which makes the EU a natural immigration destination for
North Africans. In order to promote greater economic and
political stability in the so-called Maghreb countries it is
important for the EU to economically engage these
countries more effectively, enclosing the Mediterranean
Sea within a single economic region. Whenever there is a
political vacuum, someone will step in to fill it – and right
now, the EU is in the midst of a grace period. Finland, too,
will be affected by some of this migration pressure in the
future.
Population projections in the Baltic Sea Region
The EU countries along the coast of the Baltic Sea
(Finland, the Baltic countries, Sweden, Poland, Germany)
now have a total population of about 141 million. According
to Eurostat projections (Population Project), by 2050 the
combined population of these countries will decline by
nearly 10 million. The most worrisome aspect of this is that
the population of Germany, which has been the engine
behind EU’s economic growth, already began to decline in
2004. The Baltic countries are also expected to lose about
10 % of their populations over the next four decades. The
Nordic countries are in a somewhat better position in that
their populations are experiencing growth.
Population researchers put a high value on the Nordic
welfare model and its family policies that support child
rearing and family formation in general. Even now, Nordic
fertility rates clearly surpass those of other countries in the
Baltic Sea Region. According to family researchers, what
contributes to fertility is not just the welfare model, but also
Nordic equality practices: the more equal the roles within
families, the higher the number of children born to them.
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