Europe B2C Ecommerce Report 2013

FORECAST UP TILL 2016 EUROPE B2C E-COMMERCE 35
Forecast up till 2016
In the mature markets in Europe, notably the UK, the
Netherlands and Scandinavia, growth will slow down in
the coming years to between 10 and 13%. Ecommerce
Europe foresees a growth of 13% for the UK 57 in 2013.
For Germany 58 and France 59 we are forecasting an incre-
ase of around 20% in 2013. In South and Eastern Europe,
Ecommerce Europe expects to see continuing growth
figures of around 20% in Italy and Spain and around 30 to
35% in Russia and Turkey.
The chart shows Ecommerce Europe’s forecast for the
coming years up till 2016. Today the share of the three
leaders in Europe – the UK, Germany and France – is 61%
(70% of estimated B2C e-sales in the European Union).
This share will gradually decrease to around 55% in 2016,
under the influence of the further slowing down of e-sales
in the mature markets and the growth in other countries
and regions, in particular the South and the East of Europe.
Spain and Italy will undoubtedly catch up while in particular
Turkey and Russia will see a rapid rise in the number of
Internet-users and consequently the number of e-shoppers
in the coming years. Other countries to watch are Poland,
Ukraine, Romania and Czech Republic.
Decisive factors for such a growth will be growing
confidence in surfing on the Web, higher disposable
incomes and a further growth in fast, affordable mobile
Internet through smartphones and tablets.
FORECAST E-COMMERCE IN EUROPE 2016 IN BILLION EUROS
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
256
311
370
440
525
625
0 175 350 525 700
Figure 24: Forecast of e-commerce in Europe 2016, Ecommerce Europe, 2013
57 Source: IMRG, UK
58 Source: BVH, German association for e-commerce
59 FEVAD, French association for ecommerce