The relevance of energy storages for an autarky of electricity supply ...

5 Derived electricity demand & supply 2050 in Austria
The following chapters describe the calculated values for the electricity demand and
supply in 2050 and, therefore, constitute the basis for the conclusions of this thesis.
Basis for the calculations are two scencarios provided by the feasibility study Energy
Autarky 2050. (Streicher, 2010)
In the Constant scenario the level of the energy demand in mobility and buildings
as well as the gross value of industry remains the same in 2050 as in 2008. However,
the Growth scenario assumes a constant growth of energy demand in mobility,
buildings and gross value of industry until 2050 with 0.8 % p.a., resulting in 40 %
higher energy demand in 2050 compared to 2008.
National fuel production should be used for road freight transport, forestry and
farming; therefore, 95 % of air transportation has to be transferred to railway. In
regard to passenger transportation it is assumed that the structure of urban
development is improved and the public transport grid is extended, as well as, a
higher percentage of non-car users can be obtained. These assumption are relevant
for both scenarios. In the Constant scenario two-thirds of the transport of goods have
to be switched from road freight transport to railway fright and 98 % of railway
transport has to be electrified. Contrary to that, in the Growth scenario transport of
goods has to be transferred to railway and Danube up to almost 95 %. Passanger
transportation is decreased to 40 %. About 80 % of passenger transportation are
electric vehicles, which start to be competitive due to rising prices of fossil fuels.
Furthermore, both scenarios claim an increase of 20 % of electric machines for
forestry and agriculture and 30 % of mobile industrial machines, as the available
amount of fuels would be insufficient for all internal combustion machines and diesel
vehicles. Thus, both scenarios seem unrealistic at today’s political framework as
current trends have to be reversed – small cars instead of bigger and more powerful
cars, slower speed of travelling instead of growth and faster traffic and increased
share of public transport, non-car users and railway transport. Nevertheless, if
population growth remains modest in Austria, mobility would not be limited
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