Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power ... - tuprints

Appendix B: An Example on Decision Analysis 118
Table B.1- Discounted costs of expansion plans
Beginning of year 1 Beginning of year 5 Beginning of year 7
Double-circuit line, first circuit 30 23.76 21.15
Double-circuit line, second circuit 6 4.75 4.23
Single-circuit line 20 15.84 14.10
Medium voltage cable 14 11.09 9.87
As figure B.1 shows, at the first stage of decision we can make on of the following decisions:
• double-circuit line with the first circuit,
• single-circuit line, or
• medium voltage cable.
Consider figure B.1 and suppose the network is reinforced by double-circuit line with the first
circuit. If load A is added at the beginning of year 5, we can make one of the following
DCL-FC
MVC
Decision Node
Event Node
SCL
1
2
3
A
A
A
A
A
A
DCL-SC
MVC
No Invest
Fig. B.1 – Decision-event tree for expansion planning of the industrial network
SCL
MVC
No Invest
DCL-FC
SCL
No Invest
4
5
1
6
7
2
5
7
3
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
No Invest
No Invest
DCL-SC
No Invest
DCL-SC
No Invest
No Invest
No Invest
SCL
No Invest
MVC
No Invest
DCL-SC
No Invest
SCL
No Invest
No Invest
First stage decision Event Second stage decision Event
Third stage decision
Time Period 1 Time Period 2 Time Period 3
SCL
4
4
8
5
4
1
6
6
9
7
7
2
8
5
9
7
7
3