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5 Market Based <strong>Transmission</strong> <strong>Expansion</strong> <strong>Plann<strong>in</strong>g</strong> 69<br />

5.3.2 Case 2: There Is Non-random Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty<br />

In this case it is assumed that the follow<strong>in</strong>g non-random uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties have been identified by<br />

planners:<br />

• A generator may be added at bus 10 of the network.<br />

• An IPP may be added at bus 16 of the network.<br />

• Load of bus 24 may be change.<br />

Characteristics new generator, IPP, and load are given <strong>in</strong> tables 5.11 and 5.12. To take <strong>in</strong>to<br />

account these non-random uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong> transmission expansion plann<strong>in</strong>g, the follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

scenarios are def<strong>in</strong>ed:<br />

• Scenario 1: base case (scenario which is shown <strong>in</strong> tables 5.3 and 5.4)<br />

• Scenario 2: base case plus the new generator<br />

• Scenario 3: base case plus the load change<br />

• Scenario 4: base case plus the IPP<br />

• Scenario 5: base case plus the new generator and load change<br />

• Scenario 6: base case plus the new generator and IPP<br />

• Scenario 7: base case plus the load change and IPP<br />

• Scenario 8: base case plus the new generator, load change, and IPP<br />

It is assumed that all above scenarios have the same occurrence degree. SML, WGD, and<br />

ACC are used as plann<strong>in</strong>g criterion. In other word, SML, WGD, and ACC are used as cost<br />

function of risk analysis.<br />

Table 5.13 shows the result of plann<strong>in</strong>g under SML criterion. In this table rows 1-4 show SV,<br />

number of candidates (NC), m<strong>in</strong>imax regret plan (MRP), and capacity of m<strong>in</strong>imax regret plan<br />

(CMP) at different stages of plann<strong>in</strong>g. Rows 5-12 show the values of SML at different<br />

scenarios and different stages of plann<strong>in</strong>g when SML is used as plann<strong>in</strong>g criterion. Rows 13-<br />

20 show the values of WGD at different scenarios and different stages of plann<strong>in</strong>g when SML<br />

Table 5.11 – Characteristics of uncerta<strong>in</strong> new generator and IPP<br />

Type Bus No. M<strong>in</strong> <strong>Power</strong> (MW) Max <strong>Power</strong> (MW) PDF of Bid ($/MWhr) Unavailability<br />

Gen. 10 0 150 N~(11, 1.2) 0.02<br />

IPP 16 0 N~(80, 20) N~(13, 1.5) 0.02<br />

Table 5.12 - Characteristics of uncerta<strong>in</strong> new load<br />

Bus No. M<strong>in</strong> <strong>Power</strong> (MW) PDF of Load (MW) Bid ($/MWhr) Unavailability<br />

24 0 N~ (50, 10) 17 0.05

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