Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power ... - tuprints

6 Fuzzy Risk Assessment 88
Table 6.7- WGD of plans 1-28, 5-29, 14-29, 16-29 in case 1
Scen. 1 Scen. 2 Scen. 3 Scen. 4 Scen. 5 Scen. 6 Scen. 7 Scen. 8
Plan 1-28 1.7626 1.4640 1.7806 1.7473 1.4936 1.5171 1.7602 1.5503
Plan 5-29 1.7603 1.3752 1.7875 1.7292 1.4106 1.3276 1.7429 1.3642
Plan 14-29 1.7628 1.4052 1.7861 1.7273 1.4360 1.3969 1.7364 1.4322
Plan 16-29 1.8583 1.5907 1.8877 1.6876 1.6330 1.3294 1.6947 1.3676
Table 6.8- Regrets of plans 1-28, 5-29, 14-29, 16-29 in case 1
Scen. 1 Scen. 2 Scen. 3 Scen. 4 Scen. 5 Scen. 6 Scen. 7 Scen. 8
Plan 1-28 0.0022 0.0887 0 0.0597 0.0830 0.1895 0.0654 0.1861
Plan 5-29 0 0 0.0070 0.0416 0 0 0.0482 0
Plan 14-29 0.0025 0.0299 0.0056 0.0397 0.0255 0.0693 0.0417 0.0681
Plan 16-29 0.0979 0.2154 0.1072 0 0.2224 0.0018 0 0.0035
Case 2: Suppose another plan (plan 114) is added to the set of expansion candidates. WGD of
plan 114 in different scenarios is given in table 6.9. In this case, minimax regret selects plan
114 while other methods still select plan 5-29 as the final plan. Regrets of plans 1-28, 5-29,
14-29, 16-29 and plan 114 are given in table 6.10. This table shows that regrets of plan 114
are greater than regrets of plan 5-29 in all scenarios except scenario 7. Even in this scenario,
the difference is negligible. Hence plan 114 is riskier than plan 5-29. This example shows that
conventional risk assessment with minimax regret criterion selects riskier plan than other
approaches.
Table 6.9- WGD of plans 1-28, 5-29, 14-29, 16-29, and plan 114 in case 2
Scen. 1 Scen. 2 Scen. 3 Scen. 4 Scen. 5 Scen. 6 Scen. 7 Scen. 8
Plan 1-28 1.7626 1.4640 1.7806 1.7473 1.4936 1.5171 1.7602 1.5503
Plan 5-29 1.7603 1.3752 1.7875 1.7292 1.4106 1.3276 1.7429 1.3642
Plan 14-29 1.7628 1.4052 1.7861 1.7273 1.4360 1.3969 1.7364 1.4322
Plan 16-29 1.8583 1.5907 1.8877 1.6876 1.6330 1.3294 1.6947 1.3676
Plan 114 1.7700 1.4000 1.8000 1.7300 1.4500 1.3700 1.7300 1.4000
Table 6.10- Regrets of plans 1-28, 5-29, 14-29, 16-29 and plan 114 in case 2
Scen. 1 Scen. 2 Scen. 3 Scen. 4 Scen. 5 Scen. 6 Scen. 7 Scen. 8
Plan 1-28 0.0022 0.0887 0 0.0597 0.0830 0.1895 0.0654 0.1861
Plan 5-29 0 0 0.0070 0.0416 0 0 0.0482 0
Plan 14-29 0.0025 0.0299 0.0056 0.0397 0.0255 0.0693 0.0417 0.0681
Plan 16-29 0.0979 0.2154 0.1072 0 0.2224 0.0018 0 0.0035
Plan 114 0.0097 0.0248 0.0194 0.0424 0.0394 0.0424 0.0353 0.0358
Case 3: Now suppose WGD of plan 114 be as table 6.11. After adding plan 114 to the set of
expansion plans, minimax regret criterion selects plan 14-29 while other methods still select