ISSUE 91 : Nov/Dec - 1991 - Australian Defence Force Journal

HOW MANY WEAPONS' 1 HOW MANY AIRCRAFT? 29
refinery systems, functions and the times required
for repairs.
Defining the Mission Objective
Having analysed the target to determine the focus
of an attack, the next step is to define precisely the
mission aims. Each target selected will contribute
different results at different times and remain
effective for different durations. Is the aim to deny
the enemy use of its airspace for six hours or six
months? Is it solely to prevent the enemy from
attacking friendly armoured ground forces? Is the
aim a gradual escalation of hostilities or immediate
annihilation?
Consider the operation against the oil refinery
where the aim is to halt fuel production for a
nominated period of six months only. If it takes two
sorties to halt production for six months and ten
sorties to completely destroy it, then only two sorties
should be planned in keeping with the mission aim.
The mission aim is to inflict levels of damage
sufficient to support the tactical operation; any
lesser damage fails to support the operation and any
additional damage is a waste of resources.
Determining Weapon System
Effectiveness
Knowing the kind of damage which each type of
warhead can produce is as important as knowing the
amount of damage required to defeat specific
targets. The weaponeer will have to assess and
compare the damage effectiveness of the different
weapons available for the mission. This analysis is
based on the use of statistical data collected on the
effectiveness of a variety of weapons against different
targets. The US Joint Technical Co-ordinating
Group for Munitions Effectiveness has created the
Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manuals (JMEMs)
which are currently the main source of RAAF
weapon effort planning information. JMEMs provide
the data for determining the optimum weapon
choice against particular targets. For instance, blast
weapons are quite effective against large structures,
building and bridges; a penetration device is effective
against a heavily armoured warship; a cratering
device is effective against a runway; a cluster
munition is effective against ground-based radars,
and fragmentation devices are effective against
military personnel.
Consider the Rolling Thunder bombing missions
flown against the Than Hoa bridge in the Vietnam
War. The aim of these missions was to disrupt the
North Vietnamese supply lines. However, the Than
Hoa bridge soon developed the reputation of being
the 'bridge that would never go down'. Nearly 700
sorties had dropped thousands of conventional
bombs on it between 1964 and 1972. It was not until
1972 that the bridge was finally destroyed by three
¥A Phantoms armed with newly developed laserguided
bombs (LGBs). 4 This highlights the forcemultiplying
advantage of LGBs over conventional
bombs in that more effective damage could be
achieved against unitary targets by fewer aircraft.
Having determined the optimum weapon choice,
the next step is to use the JMEMs data to determine
the number of weapons most likely to be needed to
achieve the required level of damage. This weapon
system effectiveness data, against particular targets,
originates from three main sources:
a. Direct observation of the results of strike
missions from World War II through to recent
military conflicts;
b. Direct observation of weapons used against
targets in controlled research trials; and
c. Computer modelling of weapon system effectiveness
against computer modelled targets.
The weaponeer matches the target against the
JMEMs model target, applies statistically derived
scaling factors and calculates how many weapons
will be required to achieve the required level of
damage.
It is important to select the best available weapon
for the mission to ensure the most cost-effective use
of limited assets. Weapon effort planning becomes
even more important when the optimum weapon is
no longer available, as a result of expenditure or
weapon commitments elsewhere, and a choice needs
to be made from a variety of alternative weapons.
Over-The-Target Requirements
Over-the-target requirements will determine how
many aircraft must be tasked for the mission to
ensure delivery of the required quantity of weapons
to the target. This will increase the number of
aircraft required to complete the ideal mission, after
consideration of the following factors:
a. Aircraft serviceability rates.
b. Attrition rates from an enemy's defences.
c. The probability of correct target acquisition
amidst decoys, changing environmental condi-