baltic states and belarus real estate market review - Colliers

Real Estate Market Review 2011 | Estonia Economic Overview
Key economic indicators of estonia
f – forecast
Source: Estonian Statistics Department. Bank of Estonia. Ministry of Finance. Swedbank
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f
GDP Current Prices, EUR billion 6.9 7.8 8.7 9.6 11.1 13.1 15.3 15.9 13.9 14.5 14.9
GDP Growth (real), % yoy 7.7 7.8 7.1 7.5 9.2 10.4 6.3 -3.6 -13.9 3.1 4.2
Industrial Production, % yoy 8.8 8.4 11 10.4 11 9.9 6.4 -5.1 -24.0 20.9 4.6
Unemployment Rate, % avg 12.6 10.3 10 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 5.5 13.8 16.9 14.8
Total Central Government Debt, % of GDP 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.6 7.2 7.0 6.7
PPI, % yoy 4.4 0.4 0.2 2.9 2.1 4.5 8.3 7.1 -0.5 3.3 n/a
CPI, % yoy 5.8 3.6 1.3 3 4.1 4.4 6.6 10.4 -0.1 3.0 3.7
Fiscal Deficit, % of GDP -0.1 0.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 2.3 2.6 -2.8 -1.7 -1.2 -1.1
Export, EUR billion 3.7 3.6 4 4.8 6.2 7.7 8 8.5 6.5 8.7 9.1
Import, EUR billion 4.8 5.1 5.7 6.7 8.2 10.7 11.4 10.9 7.3 9.2 10.2
Current Account, EUR billion -0.4 -0.8 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -2.2 -2.8 -1.5 0.6 0.5 -0.4
Current Account, % of GDP -5.2 -10.6 -11.3 -11.3 -10 -15.3 -17.2 -9.7 4.5 3.6 -2.6
FDI, EUR million 602.7 306.8 822.2 770.8 2,302.2 1,431.7 1,991.1 1,179.7 1,209.0 1,196.5 n/a
EEK/EUR, aop 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 -
EEK/USD, aop 17.5 16.6 13.9 12.6 12.6 12.5 11.4 10.7 11.2 11.8 n/a
EUR/USD, aop 0.90 0.95 1.13 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.37 1.47 1.39 1.33 n/a
Forecasts
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The Estonian economy bottomed-out in 2009 and 2010 saw steadily improvement and
recovery. Growth is expected to be led by export, driven by a faster-than-expected recovery
of external demand from main export markets such as Sweden and Finland.
The adoption of The Euro is believed to be crucial the revival of investment activity. The
major benefit of The Euro will be a reduction of currency conversion, lower risks and
greater market confidence.
Rising prices, ongoing unemployment and a high saving rate will suppress private
consumption growth in Estonia.
CONTACT: AVO RÕÕMUSSAAR - a.roomussaar@colliers.ee
Colliers International | p. 53