baltic states and belarus real estate market review - Colliers

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Real Estate Market Review 2011 | Estonia Office Market Existing Developments 34 33 26 20 16 22 18 25 21 19 29 28 2 27 30 17 Speculati ve (Not Built-to-Suit) Office Centres in Tallinn 23 31 32 1. Admirali Business Centre 2. WTC Business Centre 3. Rotermann Quarter 4. Pro Kapital Business Centre 5. Triumph Plaza 6. Foorum Business Centre 7. City Plaza 8. Rävala pst 6 Business Centre 9. Rävala pst 4 Business Centre 10. Tornimäe Twin Towers 11. Radisson and Rāvala5 Business Centre 12. Office Building at Maakri 23 13. Eurox Business Centre 14. Swiss House 15. Roosikrantsi tn 2 Office Centre 16. Tetris Office Centre 17. Kalev Business Quarter 18. YIT Business Centre 19. Veerenni Business Centre 20. Ülemiste Business Centre 21. Ehitajate tee 114 Office Centre 22. Sõpruse pst 145 Office Centre 23. Tähesaju tn 14 Office Building 24. Scala City (reconstruction) 25. Tammsaare Business House 26. Marienthali Business Centre 27. Tammsaare Business Centre 28. Estconde II Business Centre 29. Office building - Meistri tn 22 30. Delta Plaza 31. Peterburi Road Business Centre 32. Lasnamäe Business Centre 33. Peterburi Business Quarter, 1st phase 34. Al Mare Office Building 35. Metro Plaza 36. Nordea Building 37. Solaris Declared for Completion in 2011 1. Rotermann Quarter enlargement 2. Ülemiste City enlargement 3 1 1 Old town 35 6 5 2 4 CBD 8 9 7 10 11 15 37 12 36 24 14 13 CONTACT: AVO RÕÕMUSSAAR - a.roomussaar@colliers.ee Colliers International | p. 58
Real Estate Market Review 2011 | Estonia Retail Market Retail Market OVERVIEW The year on year monthly decrease in retail sales that has lasted for almost two and a half years reversed to a rise of 1 per cent in September and October in 2010. In November and December the growth in retail sales slightly accelerated further. Overall, in 2010, the retail sales decreased by 4 per cent at constant prices compared to 2009. The volume of private consumption in 2010 was roughly the same as 2004, making a negative contribution to GDP growth. The growth of private sector consumption expenditure remains lower than the average growth of the economy. Pickup in domestic demand will take place with a substantial lag behind to the recovery of export income, depending on strengthening consumer confidence and the banking sector’s support to the economy (recovery in lending). Weak domestic demand and a fall in wages were the main reasons behind the annual decrease of the consumer prices by 0.1 per cent in 2009. The consumer price index increased 3.0 per cent in 2010 on the 2009 average prices, driven up by price rises in motor fuel, electricity, heat energy, food and beverages. Rapid inflation (as there was in the second half of 2010) is not expected to continue in 2011 and remains only slightly above the euro-area average although Euro adoption will also contribute to price growth in 2011. Sales per square metre of GLA in Tallinn’s biggest shopping centres are positively correlated with wages growth, while wages growth is dependant on unemployment level in the country. Therefore with an ongoing high rate of unemployment (above 10 per cent) ongoing increases in retail sales are expected to be very modest at least until 2014. Retail sales are expected to grow in the first half of 2011 mainly due to a low y-o-y comparison base rate, but from May the pace of growth will slow down considerably. Supply By the end of 2010, the stock of Tallinn retail space had increased by approx. 32,000 sqm since the beginning of the year, totalling 461,800 sqm (1.14 sqm per capita). The new retail space was added largely from expansion of existing retail centres – Kristiine Centre and the second phase of Täesaju City (Bauhaus). The most intense retail developments occurred in Tallinn’s Kristiine and Lasnamäe districts. Completed Projects in Tallinn for 2010 Project Tähesaju City, 2nd phase City district GLA, sqm Kristiine expansion Kristiine 12,000 Total 32,000 Anchor Tenant Lasnamäe 20,000 Bauhaus CityPro Marks & Spencer, Esprite, Vila, Terranova, Högli, Matinique & Inweari Developer Pro Kapital Grupp List of New Potential Projects in Tallinn for 2011 - 2012 Expected Completion Project GLA, sqm Status Developer 2011 - 2012 Mustikas Centre 5,500 Under construction Combinent 2011 - 2012 Maxima 10,000 In planning Maxima Eesti 2012 Tähesaju City, 2nd and 3rd phases 9,000 In planning CityPro 2012 - … Rotermann Quarter, 3rd and 4th phases 1,200 In planning Rotermann Eesti 2012 - … Gate Tallinn 47,000 In planning Trigon 2012 - … American Corner Retail and Logistics Park 110,000 In planning 2012 - … Smuuli Shopping and Commercial Centre, 1st phase Total 242,700 Helios Properties and Süda Maja 60,000 In planning ELL Kinnisvara CONTACT: AVO RÕÕMUSSAAR - a.roomussaar@colliers.ee Colliers International | p. 59
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