Wyoming Framework Water Plan - Living Rivers Home Page

6.0 PROJECTIONS
Wind/Bighorn River Basin, some fairly significant increase may be expected with the development of
some of the Tribal Futures Projects.
Low Scenario
The Low Scenario for livestock production reflects what are considered to be the most pessimistic
stocking assumptions for the state given production of feed from irrigated lands and arid rangelands. This
scenario also assumes weak demand and prices for beef, wool, and lamb. Other negative influences on
agriculture assumed under the Low Scenario are faster urban development and land subdivision or
consolidation of ranches; no investment in stockwater developments to increase range productivity; rising
prices of inputs like fertilizer; and large numbers of outside cattle. Sheep inventories will continue to fall
and cattle numbers will remain steady or decline, potentially to historic lows.
Under the Low Scenario, irrigated acreage will remain constant or decrease from current levels.
The statistics on livestock numbers and irrigated acreage suggest that when economic conditions
deteriorate in the river basin areas, ranchers respond primarily with changes in livestock herds and not as
much with changes in irrigated acreage patterns. Under the Low Scenario, the crop mix is anticipated to
remain unchanged with the highest percent of irrigated acreage planted in alfalfa, other hays, and pasture.
6.2.2 Future Water Needs and Demands
Needs and demands for irrigation water must be
differentiated. A need for additional irrigation water is an
identifiable current or future use that would enhance the economic
well-being of the irrigator and/or the economy of the region as a
whole. Demands are distinguished from needs by the fact that they
are measured in relationship to price. To give a simple example, an
irrigator may need additional irrigation water in a dry year to grow
enough hay to provide winter feed for his cattle. However, if
additional water costs $500 per acre-foot, the irrigator’s demand for additional water would probably be
zero because it would be more cost-effective to either buy additional forage from other producers or
reduce the size of his herd.
In analyzing municipal and industrial water uses, needs and demands are often viewed
interchangeably. The cost of water is usually a relatively minor part of the costs involved in developing
water intensive manufacturing facilities such as electric power plants. As a result, it can be assumed that
industrial users will demand the water that they need to expand production over a reasonable range of
prices. Similarly, municipal needs are usually assumed to be essential and thus will be translated into
demands over a reasonable price range. That convention was used for projecting municipal and industrial
demands. Irrigated agriculture, however, is an industry in which producers are very sensitive to the price
of water, and their demands for water can change dramatically as a function of price.
To determine the level of need and demand for irrigation water, all irrigated lands in the seven
river basins were mapped as part of the river basin planning efforts. Table 6-1 shows the current level of
irrigation in each of the river basins and also shows the projected increase in irrigated acreage for each
basin.
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