Wyoming Framework Water Plan - Living Rivers Home Page

6.0 PROJECTIONS
These three methods were used to generate population forecasts through the year 2030 for
communities and rural areas. The WDAI extended forecasts generally resulted in the smallest population
projections, followed by the USCB projections and the historical growth projections in that order.
Table 6-7 shows the 30-year projected populations of the seven river basins for the high, mid and
low scenarios.
Table 6-7 Actual and Projected Populations
River Basin
30-Year Projections
Population 1 High Scenario Mid Scenario Low Scenario
number of people
Bear 14,550 29,400 21,500 15,100
Green 54,760 91,400 75,000 62,500
Northeast 45,600 75,900 60,700 55,600
Platte 227,330 402,000 343,000 322,000
Powder/Tongue 38,420 52,400 49,100 45,000
Snake/Salt 27,480 75,100 46,700 29,300
Wind/Bighorn 86,050 114,400 94,600 90,400
Total 494,190 840,600 690,600 619,900
1
Individual basin numbers do not total to 493,782, the 2000 census population, due to differences experienced in
disaggregation and assignment of census block data to the river basin areas.
Source: Wyoming Department of Administration and Information, Economic Analysis Division. Profile of General Housing
Characteristics by County and Place, 2000. Census Tracts from 2000 Census of Population and Housing, Census 2000,
U.S. Census Bureau.
WDAI Population Projections
The Economic Analysis Division of the WDAI produces population forecasts for Wyoming
counties, cities, and towns.
The Economic Analysis Division forecasts population only 10 or fewer years into the future
because of the uncertainties associated with such projections. A reasonable set of low growth rate
population projections can be derived by computing the WDAI’s average annual population growth rates
for the river basin planning area by using the most recent forecasts and extending those growth rates
through the planning horizon.
USCB Projections
The USCB periodically produces population forecasts for each of the 50 states using a cohort
survival approach, which is based on births and deaths. USCB forecasts for Wyoming are contained in
two sets of population projections, the Series A and Series B forecasts.
Both series of projections indicate moderate future population growth for Wyoming based upon
migration patterns in the mid-1990s. During that period, there was a moderate influx of new residents
into some parts of Wyoming from elsewhere in the country. The USCB projections are based upon the
assumption that this moderate rate of net in-migration will continue into the future.
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