Weeki Wachee River System Recommended Minimum Flows and ...

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0 if no significant withdrawal Z = 1 if significant withdrawal and the model becomes: Flow = β 0 + β1Rain + β 2Z + ε There are two assumptions with this model. The first assumption is that the impacts from withdrawal, once begun, continue through to the present time. The second assumption is that we can determine when the impacts began. To address these assumptions it was first necessary to identify the ground-water basin providing water to Weeki Wachee springs. A prior USGS study 30 of the hydrology of the coastal springs provides an approximate delineation of the basin which is shown in Figure 7. With the basin delineated all the permitted withdrawal points were identified. Reported withdrawal quantities were extracted from the SWFWMD data base and totaled for each year. Unfortunately, this data, shown in Figure 8, only goes back as far as 1975 but it clearly shows an increase in withdrawals over time that appear to peak in recent years at around 45 to 50 mgd. The assumption that the withdrawal impact, once begun, continues to the present would appear reasonable. The second assumption of being able to define the year in which impacts begin poses a more difficult problem. The solution employed was to let the regression model determine when the impacts began. In order to do this, the model was run sequentially with the first run assuming that the entire period of 1941 to 2004 was impacted. The second run would assume that the impact began in 1942 and so on. After each run, 64 in this case, the results of the model including the F-test results, R-squared results were examined. The model run with the best results was then chosen and the parameter coefficients were examined for statistical significance and for reasonable sign. By reasonable sign it is meant that the parameter coefficient for rainfall should be positive and for impact negative. Since the model is solving for flow in cfs the parameter coefficient for impact is also in cfs. 30 Knochenmus, Lari A, Yobbi, Dann K., 2001, Hydrology of the Coastal Springs Ground-Water Basin and Adjacent Parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Citrus Counties, Florida, U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Investigations Report 01-4230, 88p. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for Weeki Wachee River Page 129 of 164 Appendices
Figure 7 Location of Weeki Wachee Ground-Water Basin Thus the value of the impact parameter coefficient is the model's best estimate of the impact not attributable to rainfall. Some experimentation was also conducted in the choice of model rainfall parameters. That is, in addition to current rainfall for each year, rainfall lagged by one and two years were input to determine the optimum model form. Ultimately it was found that the best model incorporated lagged rainfall rather than current rainfall. Estimated Withdrawals (mgd) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Year Figure 8 Reported ground-water withdrawals within the Weeki Wachee ground-water basin ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Proposed Minimum Flows and Levels for Weeki Wachee River Page 130 of 164 Appendices
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Weeki Wachee River System Recommend
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Conversion Table Metric to U.S. Cus
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5.2 FISH ..........................
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Figure 3-2 Location of Bathymetric
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LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1 Rule-of-Th
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Table 8-1 Summary of Weeki Wachee M
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Executive Summary Minimum Flows and
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CHAPTER 1 - PURPOSE & BACKGROUND OF
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1) flood flows that determine the b
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the area." What constitutes "signif
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Table 1-1 Rule-of-Thumb Estimates f
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this report identifies specific res
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1.6 Content of Remaining Chapters I
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CHAPTER 2 - WATERSHED CHARACTERISTI
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# # # circular vent 1.8 meters in d
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Figure 2-5 1970s Aerial with 1999 U
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is a variation of the Seminole word
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Figure 2-6 Hurricane Tracks near Ba
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varied by period. The variation was
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2.3.2 Baseline Period Figure 2-10 i
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found (ktau p=0.06) between total g
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similarly across the springsheds ex
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Figure 2-15 Wavelet Filtered Discha
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Figure 2-16 INTB Groundwater Model
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2.6 Seasonal Blocks As described in
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Table 2-6 Median (cfs) Flow by Bloc
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# # # Surface waters in this stretc
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3.1.3 Segmentation Segmentation was
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Figure 3-5 Dominant SAV and Median
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Figure 3-6 Sediment Characteristics
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Figure 3-7 Shoreline / Buffer Veget
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CHAPTER 4 - TIDE, SALINITY & WATER
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Two additional harmonic pairs were
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Figure 4-5. Median Bottom Salinity
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Figure 4-7 Salinity Range (1984-200
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uncovering in response to strong wi
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E) Salinity = β o + β 1 *Flow 2 +
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Additional exploratory attempts usi
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86 = 186 cfs, SWFWMD 1994-96 = 167
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A regression of the form below was
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Table 4-8 Median Water Quality of W
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Figure 4-10 Nitrate Concentration a
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CHAPTER 5 - BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERIST
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Figure 5-1 Principal Component Anal
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measured volume sampled which was t
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5.2.2 Relation to inflow Response t
Page 94 and 95: Table 5-7 Location Response (km u )
Page 96 and 97: Table 5-9 Abundance Response to Inf
Page 98 and 99: animals can survive chronic exposur
Page 100 and 101: Figure 5-3 Number of Aerial Manatee
Page 102 and 103: Figure 5-5(a) Molluscan Presence /
Page 104 and 105: Table 5-11 Rank Order of Mollusc Ab
Page 106 and 107: Figure 5-5 Polymesoda caroliniana A
Page 108 and 109: Figure 6-1 Plankton Tow Flows Compa
Page 110 and 111: In application, a baseline area and
Page 112 and 113: 6.1.4 Benthos Protection for benthi
Page 114 and 115: Figure 6-3. Location of the Three P
Page 116 and 117: 7.2 Manatee Approach Establishing a
Page 118 and 119: Figure 7-2 Joint Probability of Occ
Page 120 and 121: Figure 7-3 Maximum Day Manatee Usag
Page 122 and 123: Figure 7- 6 Example Calculations fo
Page 124 and 125: Figure 7- 7 Estimation of Flow Redu
Page 126 and 127: Figure 7-8. Summary Results for the
Page 128 and 129: The reductions in flow that meet th
Page 130 and 131: probably accounts in part for the d
Page 132 and 133: Postel, S. and B.Richter. 2003. Riv
Page 134 and 135: Stanford, J.A., J.V.Ward, W.J. Liss
Page 136 and 137: Culter, J.K. 1986. Water Chemistry.
Page 138 and 139: CHAPTER 10 - APPENDICES 10.1 Append
Page 140 and 141: The wavelet used is the symmlets wa
Page 142 and 143: explains, the energy plot shows the
Page 146 and 147: One advantage of using this regress
Page 148 and 149: Technical Memorandum January 22, 20
Page 150 and 151: Lecanto 1 & 2 #S Well Site Descript
Page 152 and 153: Figure 4. HSPF subbasins in the INT
Page 154 and 155: Most of the limestone mines located
Page 156 and 157: 3.1.3 Septic Tank Recharge in the S
Page 158 and 159: Figure 10. Groundwater grid in the
Page 160 and 161: Basso, R.J., 2004, Hydrogeologic Se
Page 162 and 163: 10.2 Appendices - Chapter 3 Appendi
Page 164 and 165: 10.3 Appendices - Chapter 4 Appendi
Page 166 and 167: Appendix 4-2 Data Sources Water qua
Page 168 and 169: Appendix 4-3 Water Quality Trend Gr
Page 170 and 171: Water Quality Trend Graphics, conti
Page 180 and 181: United States Department of the Int
Page 182 and 183: October 8,2008 Florida Fish and Wil
Page 184 and 185: Martin Kelly, Ph.D. Page 3 October
Page 186 and 187: Scientific Peer Review of the Propo
Page 188 and 189: Determining a low flow need during
Page 190 and 191: Current state water policy, as expr
Page 192 and 193: Spring, Twin Dees Spring and possib
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under varying flow regimes. The fir
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Weeki Wachee Rainfall, Springflow a
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6.0 Discharge:Precipitation (cfs/in
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Nevertheless, a major concern with
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system grid is not totally orthogon
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In a hydrodynamic model study, one
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analysis was rather cursory. The Di
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(taxa) richness in the WWRS. If the
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Freshwater Habitats Approximately 1
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ERRATA and EDITORIAL COMMENTS Page
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Page Paragraph Line Comment 14 Some
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Page Paragraph Line Comment 21 The
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Page Paragraph Line Comment 26 The
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REFERENCES Alber, M. 2002. A Concep
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Richter, B. D., J. V. Baumgartner,
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the regression equation used to pre
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and the three independent approache
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The Southwest Florida Water Managem
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the model in terms of tides, salini
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Attachment 1 - Comparison of salini
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Figure 1. Predicted drawdown (feet)
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