1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 NPV (US$) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 –100,000 Scenario 5: garden (3 × 4 yr) & <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha/yr <strong>for</strong> 10 years) Scenario 6: <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha/yr <strong>for</strong> 10 years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 Discount rate (%) Figure 17. Net present value (NPV) profile <strong>for</strong> two different plant<strong>in</strong>g scenarios across discount rates from 1% to 30%. The <strong>in</strong>ternal rate of return is <strong>the</strong> discount rate at which <strong>the</strong> NPV equals zero. 30-year rotation (scenario 8) with a mean heartwood weight of 57 kg/tree. It was found that, while a greater weight of heartwood per tree was ga<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> s<strong>in</strong>gle 30-year rotation than <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> two 15-year rotations, <strong>the</strong> NPV of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>mer was substantially lower (scenario 8, US$20,311) than <strong>the</strong> latter (scenario 7, US$35,833) (Figure 18), despite <strong>the</strong> higher costs of establish<strong>in</strong>g two plant<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> scenario 7 compared with only one <strong>in</strong> scenario 8. The difference <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> NPV between <strong>the</strong>se scenarios was caused exclusively by <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creased impact of discount<strong>in</strong>g on <strong>the</strong> longer rotation scenario. The differential effect of discount<strong>in</strong>g on <strong>the</strong>se two scenarios is demonstrated by <strong>the</strong> higher NPV <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> 30-year scenario 8 compared with <strong>the</strong> two 15-year scenarios 7 at discount rates of below 6% (Figure 19). The comparison between scenarios 7 and 8 only valued <strong>the</strong> trees accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> weight of heartwood and <strong>the</strong> farm-gate value of approximately US$10/kg. It is likely, however, that <strong>the</strong> trees grow<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 30-year rotation have a much higher chance of produc<strong>in</strong>g carv<strong>in</strong>g logs than those <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> two 15-year rotations. The m<strong>in</strong>imum specification of a carv<strong>in</strong>g log is set at a diameter of 10 cm of pure heartwood at <strong>the</strong> smallest end of <strong>the</strong> log. If a 15-year-old tree has a basal diameter (under bark) of approximately 15 cm, with about 50% of <strong>the</strong> stem cross-section comprised of heartwood, <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> diameter of <strong>the</strong> heartwood at <strong>the</strong> base would be about 10.5 cm. Given that this is at <strong>the</strong> widest end of <strong>the</strong> log, it would be unlikely that any of <strong>the</strong> 15-year-old trees would have heartwood that meets <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong>imum specifications <strong>for</strong> a carv<strong>in</strong>g log. Trees <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 30-year rotation, however, may have an under-bark basal diameter of 30 cm and, with 50% of its basal area comprised of heartwood, could have a heartwood diameter of 21.3 cm. For <strong>the</strong> <strong>sandalwood</strong> trees measured <strong>in</strong> this study, <strong>the</strong> diameter at breast height was, on average, 76.4% of <strong>the</strong> basal diameter (stem taper). If <strong>the</strong> heartwood percentage is consistent along <strong>the</strong> stem, <strong>the</strong> diameter of <strong>the</strong> heartwood at breast height would be approximately 16.3 cm. Provided that appropriate prun<strong>in</strong>g occurred at an early age (as costed <strong>in</strong> all scenarios), all 30-year-old trees have <strong>the</strong> potential to produce a carv<strong>in</strong>g log to meet <strong>the</strong> highest specifications (i.e. clear gra<strong>in</strong> heartwood with no faults or cracks, with a m<strong>in</strong>imum diameter of 10 cm at its narrowest end and a length of 1.2 m). Although <strong>the</strong> potential exists, it is likely that many trees <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> plant<strong>in</strong>g would not meet <strong>the</strong> specifications as, <strong>for</strong> example, a proportion of <strong>the</strong> trees may have w<strong>in</strong>dswept trunks or rot. 43
NPV accumulated cash flow (US$) (discount rate 10%) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 –5,000 –10,000 Scenario 7: garden and <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha) (2 × 15 yr rotations) Scenario 8: garden and <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha) (1 × 30 yr rotations) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 Year from establishment Figure 18. Net present value (NPV) accumulated cash flow <strong>for</strong> two 1 hectare plant<strong>in</strong>g models at a 10% discount rate NPV (US$) 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 –20,000 Scenario 7: garden and <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha) (2 × 15 yr rotations) Scenario 8: garden and <strong>sandalwood</strong> (1 ha) (1 × 30 yr rotations) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930 Discount rate (%) Figure 19. Net present value (NPV) profile <strong>for</strong> two different plant<strong>in</strong>g scenarios across discount rates from 1% to 30%. The <strong>in</strong>ternal rate of return is <strong>the</strong> discount rate at which <strong>the</strong> NPV equals zero. 44
- Page 1 and 2: Opportunities for the smallholder s
- Page 3 and 4: The Australian Centre for Internati
- Page 5 and 6: of the Vanuatu sandalwood industry.
- Page 7 and 8: Socioeconomics of sandalwood produc
- Page 9 and 10: Acknowledgments The authors recogni
- Page 11 and 12: Summary Vanuatu is a developing cou
- Page 13 and 14: Introduction Sandalwood (Santalum s
- Page 15 and 16: (Fiji, Samoa and Tonga). The uncont
- Page 17 and 18: 140,000 Sandalwood oil production (
- Page 19 and 20: 120,000 Sandalwood oil production (
- Page 21 and 22: Percentage of total Vanuatu exports
- Page 23 and 24: the sustainability of wild-harvesti
- Page 25 and 26: 120,000 100,000 Seedlings planted 8
- Page 27 and 28: 25,000 Established sandalwood seedl
- Page 29 and 30: 400 350 Heartwood production (tonne
- Page 31 and 32: each of the three products, Summit
- Page 33 and 34: Productivity of planted sandalwood
- Page 35 and 36: 120 100 Heartwood yield (kg) 80 60
- Page 37 and 38: Socioeconomics of sandalwood produc
- Page 39 and 40: All input costs were expressed on a
- Page 41 and 42: heartwood rotation. This sandalwood
- Page 43: e beyond an individual smallholder
- Page 47 and 48: The data used to determine the size
- Page 49 and 50: Table 6. Comparison of sandalwood o
- Page 51 and 52: 90,000 80,000 70,000 Price (A$/tonn
- Page 53 and 54: markets include growing consumer pr
- Page 55 and 56: It is also possible to publish draf
- Page 57 and 58: Box 2. Industry weaknesses and thre
- Page 59 and 60: development strategies are based on
- Page 61 and 62: or recognised through an accreditat
- Page 63 and 64: Conclusions and recommendations An
- Page 65 and 66: References AAG (Australian Agribusi
- Page 67 and 68: Mwang’ingo P.L., Tcklchaimanot Z.