CTO Assessment - European Commission

Overview view on
market
developments
in CTO sectors
In this section, a brief overview of the market development for each of the three renewable energy sectors in the past 10-12 years
and projections for 2010 is provided and contrasted. Looking at the annual growth rates between 1995 and 2001 one can
conclude that some sectors are far beyond or well in line with the expectations of the CTO objectives. Wind, for example, reached
the CTO target “10,000 MW” in 2000 and will most likely reach the White Paper target in 2004. At the end of 2003, the
surface of European installed solar thermal capacity has reached the 15 million m 2 objective of the Campaign for Take-Off.
On the other hand some sectors such as biomass lie further behind the expectations.
Wind
Global wind power capacity has
quadrupled over the past five years,
growing from 7,600 megawatts (MW)
at the end of 1997 to more than 31,000
MW at the end of 2002. Around 7,000
MW of new wind power capacity was
installed globally in 2002 - enough
to power 16 million average European
homes. In other words, the capacity
installed in 2002 was roughly
equivalent to the entire cumulative
global capacity in 1997.
As is apparent in Figure 1, 85% of
this capacity was installed in the
European Union (5,870 MW),
representing a 33% increase in
installed capacity per annum over the
previous year, which saw 4,430 MW
of new capacity. The European market
has grown by an average 35% per year
over the past five years, and by the
end of 2002, total installed capacity
had reached 23,000 MW in the EU15.
In terms of conventional fuel replaced
by wind power, the electricity
production from these 23,000 MW is
equivalent to burning 20 million
tonnes of coal in a conventional power
plant. Figure 2 demonstrates the total
installed capacities of EU15 countries.
Germany, Spain and Denmark
accounted for almost 90% of the
capacity installed in 2002. With 3,247
MW, Germany accounted for 55%,
reaching a total of 12,001 MW by the
end of 2002, enough to meet 4.7% of
national electricity needs. Spain
followed with 1,493 MW to reach a
total of 4,830 MW. Denmark installed
497 MW to reach 2,880 MW, enough
to meet 20% of the country’s electricity
needs. The Netherlands (217 MW) and
Italy (103 MW) also reached threedigit
figures for installation in 2002.
Figure 1
Annual installed wind electricity generation capacity in Europe and the world 1991 – 2002
8000
7000
6000
MW
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
EU
WORLD
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
190 215 367 472 814 979 1277 1700 3225 3209 4428 5871
240 338 480 730 1290 1283 1532 2517 3441 3763 6500 7271
Source: European Wind Energy Association, 2003
Market Development
15