05.11.2012 Views

01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...

01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...

01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

Management Report<br />

Scenario analysis<br />

and stress scenarios<br />

Stress scenario<br />

Stress scenarios<br />

The <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group companies satisfy all four variants of the stress test prescribed by the<br />

Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). Based on data from financial statements,<br />

these stress tests simulate very negative capital market changes – sometimes for both<br />

shares and fixed-income securities or investment property – and examine the impact on<br />

the insurer’s financial statements. The target horizon is the next reporting date. Surplus<br />

cover – even in this exaggerated stress scenario – indicates the risk-bearing capacity and<br />

stability of the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group insurance companies.<br />

Scenario analysis<br />

In scenario analysis, the risks defined above are quantified and aggregated on the<br />

basis of the year-end value of the portfolio. Sensitivity analysis pursuant to the German<br />

accounting standard DRS 5-20 produced the following figures for the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group.<br />

An increase of 100 basis points in the interest curve reduced the market value of fixedincome<br />

securities by €826.8 million in comparison to the year-end value of the portfolio.<br />

An isolated parallel 100-basis-point rise in the spread curve reduced the market value of<br />

the bond portfolio susceptible to credit risk by €375.3 million. Taking into account<br />

hedging measures, a decrease of 20 % in trading prices resulted in a fall in market value<br />

of €354.3 million in the case of shares and other non-fixed-income financial instruments.<br />

A decrease of 10 % in the market value of the property investments of the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group<br />

represents €171.4 million. The following table shows the possible change in equity<br />

assuming the above sensitivities.<br />

Impact on equity €million<br />

Decrease<br />

in market value<br />

Change in equity not<br />

recognized in<br />

statement of income<br />

of income<br />

Change in equity<br />

recognized in statement<br />

of income<br />

20<strong>09</strong> 2008 20<strong>09</strong> 2008 20<strong>09</strong> 2008<br />

Fixed-income securities<br />

(interest change risk) 826.8 836.7 54.2 34.8 0.0 0.0<br />

Fixed-income securities<br />

susceptible to credit risk<br />

(counterparty default risk) 375.3 346.4 19.0 14.9 0.0 0.0<br />

Shares and other<br />

non-fixed-income financial<br />

instruments (price risk) 354.3 362.6 0.0 0,0 133.7 125.4<br />

Property (price risk) 171.4 160.1 23.6 22.2 0.0 0.0<br />

Total 1,727.8 1,705.8 96.8 71.9 133.7 125.4<br />

84 <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group Annual Report 20<strong>09</strong>

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!