01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...
01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...
01 Gothaer Konzern_E_09_Umschl - Gothaer Allgemeine ...
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Management Report<br />
Scenario analysis<br />
and stress scenarios<br />
Stress scenario<br />
Stress scenarios<br />
The <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group companies satisfy all four variants of the stress test prescribed by the<br />
Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin). Based on data from financial statements,<br />
these stress tests simulate very negative capital market changes – sometimes for both<br />
shares and fixed-income securities or investment property – and examine the impact on<br />
the insurer’s financial statements. The target horizon is the next reporting date. Surplus<br />
cover – even in this exaggerated stress scenario – indicates the risk-bearing capacity and<br />
stability of the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group insurance companies.<br />
Scenario analysis<br />
In scenario analysis, the risks defined above are quantified and aggregated on the<br />
basis of the year-end value of the portfolio. Sensitivity analysis pursuant to the German<br />
accounting standard DRS 5-20 produced the following figures for the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group.<br />
An increase of 100 basis points in the interest curve reduced the market value of fixedincome<br />
securities by €826.8 million in comparison to the year-end value of the portfolio.<br />
An isolated parallel 100-basis-point rise in the spread curve reduced the market value of<br />
the bond portfolio susceptible to credit risk by €375.3 million. Taking into account<br />
hedging measures, a decrease of 20 % in trading prices resulted in a fall in market value<br />
of €354.3 million in the case of shares and other non-fixed-income financial instruments.<br />
A decrease of 10 % in the market value of the property investments of the <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group<br />
represents €171.4 million. The following table shows the possible change in equity<br />
assuming the above sensitivities.<br />
Impact on equity €million<br />
Decrease<br />
in market value<br />
Change in equity not<br />
recognized in<br />
statement of income<br />
of income<br />
Change in equity<br />
recognized in statement<br />
of income<br />
20<strong>09</strong> 2008 20<strong>09</strong> 2008 20<strong>09</strong> 2008<br />
Fixed-income securities<br />
(interest change risk) 826.8 836.7 54.2 34.8 0.0 0.0<br />
Fixed-income securities<br />
susceptible to credit risk<br />
(counterparty default risk) 375.3 346.4 19.0 14.9 0.0 0.0<br />
Shares and other<br />
non-fixed-income financial<br />
instruments (price risk) 354.3 362.6 0.0 0,0 133.7 125.4<br />
Property (price risk) 171.4 160.1 23.6 22.2 0.0 0.0<br />
Total 1,727.8 1,705.8 96.8 71.9 133.7 125.4<br />
84 <strong>Gothaer</strong> Group Annual Report 20<strong>09</strong>