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14 SCF Folio Making the most out of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) No one can tell for sure what the next season will be like. Even when a climate in a particular place or region is generally predictable, there is a varying difference in the yearly duration, intensity and timing of rainy and dry periods. Thus, it is important to know and understand SCF and how it may benefit the population. Global changes in weather and climate are largely brought about by the cycle of atmospheric and pattern changes in the Pacific Ocean called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This usually occurs in December; hence, the term “El Niño” for the “Christ Child,” and usually has a cycle duration of four years. The ENSO is a complex process but basically it involves the unusual warming and cooling of the ocean’s surface sea temperature. The El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO while La Niña is the cool phase. The changes in temperature that these phases bring affect weather and climate in many parts of the world, even those that are far from the Pacific Ocean. With advances in science and technology, people’s knowledge on seasonal climate changes such as ENSO has grown considerably. A seasonal climate forecast is an estimate of how rainfall or temperature in a coming season is likely to be different from the prevailing average climate. SCFs use dynamical (based on laws of physics) or statistical (based on historical patterns) methods to predict the climate. They usually forecast “above median” or “below median” rainfall. Seasonal climate forecasting is usually done three months to a year in advance or longer. Why it is important to understand SCFs Weather and climate are significant forces in people’s lives. Important and not-so-important decisions are made depending on the weather or ensuing climate. Planning for social and economic benefits would be greatly enhanced by being able to forecast seasonal conditions in the months ahead. Conversely, it can mean human lives and incomes lost when changes in climate are not anticipated. Thus, knowing and understanding SCFs can save lives, lessen the costs and present opportunities to various sectors for better planning and decisionmaking. The agriculture sector would naturally be the major beneficiary of SCF. For the Philippines, it is one of the country’s top industries which accounted for about 18 percent of the total gross domestic product (GDP) and whose labor force reached 11.38 million in 2004. Since agriculture is vulnerable to climate variability, farmers may benefit from SCFs by being able to choose what crops to plant and when to plant them. While the risks may not be completely eliminated, information from SCFs can lessen the costs that would have been incurred and may even enable farmers to make substantial yields and higher incomes. Other end users of SCFs include the energy sector—suppliers of electricity and natural gas which benefit from forecasts to help them plan energy usage and make operations run efficiently. The tourism industry is likewise a logical beneficiary as travel agents and event organizers are able to put together vacation packages and schedule occasions at appropriate times. Retailers and other businesses can also benefit from valuable climate forecasts as they will be able to time their procurement of stocks that may be in demand once the weather changes. National and local governments can strengthen their civil defense programs by being able to stock up on supplies and train for emergency disaster operations and drought relief activities. Limitations of SCFs: bridging the gap Certainly, SCF is still an imperfect science even with the advancement of technology and research. The accuracy of the forecasts is the primary concern which may fluctuate over a period of time and with successive forecasts. It is not known what percentage of farmers in the Philippines rely on SCFs in their decisionmaking. It is said that the use of SCFs in the country and in Australia is “hampered by the lack of robust means of showing the economic value of SCF-specific decisions.” Some of the major concerns regarding SCFs are their accuracy and timeliness, the difficulties
15 To ensure that the SCFs are rendered useful to their beneficiaries, it is important that they reach them in a timely fashion and that they contain the needed information for the decisionmakers. Thus, information like when the rains will come, how frequently they will occur, and how much rainfall is to be expected must be delivered in the clearest, simplest, and most accurate manner. encountered in applying them to farm management decisions, and the apparent lack of evidence of their economic value to reduce the risks associated with their adoption. In view of this, the application of SCFs in decisionmaking has been more difficult than initially thought. blitzes to the farmers on the basics of weather, climate and seasonal forecasts, issuing frequent weather and climate analyses in popular mass media, and making information readily available and accessible to the farmers and other end users. A study on the usage of SCFs in Zimbabwe found that farmers complained of receiving climate forecasts after they have made planting decisions. They also did not understand nor trusted the forecasts. Thus, any seasonal climate forecast communications system that will be developed by any country should involve the active participation of farmers and other stakeholders. In so doing, SCFs would have greater relevance, credibility and legitimacy. (SCF Project Updates, December 2005) Ground level: reaching out to end users for SCF information To ensure that the SCFs are rendered useful to their beneficiaries, it is important that they reach them in a timely fashion and that they contain the needed information for the decisionmakers. Thus, information like when the rains will come, how frequently they will occur, and how much rainfall is to be expected must be delivered in the clearest, simplest, and most accurate manner. This may be achieved by conducting frequent information Sources SCF Project Updates Vol. 1, June 2005. “Valuing seasonal climate forecasts” by Dr. John Mullen. www.nscb.gov.ph. www.ksg.harvard.edu/sed/docs/k4dev/ lemos_k4dev_031002.pp. www.census.gov.ph/data. http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/meeting/MediaWS2001/ Glossary.html. http://www.bas.gov.ph/agri_dev.php. Tale of two surveys: feedback to PAGASA’s climate information products and services On June 30 and December 1, 2005, seminarworkshops on “Toward bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture” were held in Baybay, Leyte and Malaybalay, Bukidnon, respectively. These seminars were part of the dissemination program of the four-year project with the above title sponsored by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) and were jointly conducted by the Philippine project implementing institutions, namely, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), and the Leyte State University (LSU). The purpose of these seminar-workshops was to introduce the project to various local government units, members of academe, and farmer groups in terms of its objectives, plan of activities, expected outputs, and possible utility in the decisionmaking and risk management of stakeholders/decisionmakers in agriculture. Some basic concepts relating to the project like the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon, tropical cyclones, climate outlook and local forecasts, and other useful meteorological terms and information were also explained. Participants in these two seminars were from LGUs (mostly municipal agriculturists), the academe, and a few groups representing farmers. To help PAGASA in its goal of improving its service delivery, especially in terms of its climate information products and services, to the agriculture sector and other related stakeholders, the participants were asked to
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66:
65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68:
67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter
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