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46 SCF Folio and most of the irrigation Figure 2.Areas affected by dry spell requirements of farms in Bulacan and some areas in Pampanga, with a belowcritical level of water supply. Consequently, this led to a scarcity in the domestic water supply, especially in Metro Manila, and crop failures in many areas in Central Luzon due to the reduced irrigated areas. Figure 2 shows the areas badly hit by the dry spell. In addition, the incidence of fires and certain health problems rose. For the agricultural sector, the prolonged dry condition slowed down productivity due to delays in planting and harvesting, instituted; repair of dikes and other impounding setting the farmers’ production outputs back by one to infrastructures was ordered; small water impounding two months. As a result, for the first half of 2007, projects were adopted; and cloud seeding operations agricultural growth slowed down to 3.5 percent as in some areas in Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, and compared to the 5.4 percent growth recorded over the Central Luzon were undertaken, among others. On the same period in 2006. Corn shortages of about 1 million demand side, meanwhile, water conservation was metric tons were also recorded while rice production encouraged among the public; use of resistant crops losses of about 400,000 metric tons were estimated. In requiring less water and of early maturing varieties was sum, about PhP1.14 billion worth of agricultural adopted; and energy conservation was observed in damages were estimated as a consequence of the dry various public offices. spell. In addition, other government bodies led by the country’s national meteorological agency, the PAGASA, What were some of the responses and the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) A number of mitigating measures were instituted by conducted an intensive information, education, and various government agencies to help address the communication (IEC) campaign for Dry Spell Vulnerable adverse consequences of the dry spell. Areas. The objective was to raise public awareness on On the supply side, directives on optimum water the effects of the dry spell and to build the capacity of allocation and utilization were issued by national water the local chief executives, the constituents, and the resources agencies; water supply distribution was media in communities under or vulnerable to said dry spell condition to assess their current situation. The objective of the IEC campaign for Dry Spell Vulnerable Areas Hopefully, they will have a better understanding of the was to raise public awareness on the effects of the dry spell and to weather and climate advisories issued by PAGASA, and build the capacity of the local chief executives, the constituents, and will be able to recommend and set up necessary the media in communities under or vulnerable to said dry spell mitigation measures to address the impact of the dry condition to assess their current situation. Hopefully, they will have spell. The target areas of this IEC drive include 22 a better understanding of the weather and climate advisories issued provinces in five regions of Luzon (Regions 1, 2, 3, 4, and by PAGASA, and will be able to recommend and set up necessary the Cordillera Administrative Region). (SCF Project mitigation measures to address the impact of the dry spell. Updates, September 2007)
A model for valuing seasonal climate forecast 47 The losses and setbacks in agricultural production experienced recently by many farms in Luzon due to the dry spell that hit the country last June and July raise the question on whether such losses could have been reduced, if not totally prevented, had farmers adjusted their production activities accordingly with advanced information given them on the possible onset, timing, and duration of the dry spell. In the first place, too, do farmers and other agricultural decisionmakers get advanced information or climate forecasts regarding the coming of seasonal climate phenomena like El Niño, La Niña, dry spell or wet spell And how much is it worth to a farmer in terms of “saved” or increased incomes/revenues if he indeed has The losses and setbacks in agricultural production experienced recently by many farms in Luzon due to the dry spell that hit the country last June and July raise the question on whether such losses could have been reduced, if not totally prevented, had farmers adjusted their production activities accordingly with advanced information given them on the possible onset, timing, and duration of the dry spell. Figure 1. Economic valuation framework used in the study these seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and makes good use of them In the joint Australian-Philippine project titled “Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture” sponsored by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), one of the objectives is to determine, through case studies and surveys, if a farmer gets the right information about the onset of seasonal climate phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (El Niño and La Niña) at the appropriate time and if he does, whether or not he makes use of them and incorporates them in his decisions affecting crop production and choices. Assuming that the farmer incorporates the information in his decisionmaking, what economic value does he gain, if any With the additional information, does he have more options to choose from Does it give him additional income Does it reduce his potential losses visà-vis a situation where he has no such information about the onset of these climate occurrences In order to answer these questions, Dr. Canesio Predo and Ms. Zyra May Holmes of the Visayas State University (formerly Leyte State University) adopted an economic valuation framework that builds on the expected utility theory and decision tree analysis but employs an alternative approach in measuring and estimating the value and utility of SCFs in the context of farm level cropping decisions. Predo and Holmes applied the framework in their Philippine case study areas for the seasonal climate forecasts project in Bohol and Leyte. The model, as seen in Figure 1, looks at farming decisions under two scenarios, namely: (a) without SCFs, and (b) with SCFs. For both scenarios, crop simulation models are required to be calibrated with corn farming systems’ input parameters, e.g., biophysical data, input requirements, prices, etc. Simulation outputs are also generated to come up with the crop yields under various ENSO phases such as
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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