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Very often, this leads to extreme climate occurrences
and subsequent calamities. As Governor Padaca earlier
noted, it is unfortunate that while their province has a
significant contribution to the food supply of the
Philippines, it is a frequent victim of climate calamities that
eventually result in damages in products and properties
worth billions of pesos. It is in this light that SCFs have to
be continuously improved as well as disseminated and
properly explained in terms of their impact, degree of
uncertainties, value, and applications.
Understanding SCFs
Simply put, SCFs are predictions of the likelihood of the
total amount of rainfall to be above, near, or below the
normal range of rainfall received for a particular area in
the coming three to six months. SCFs differ from weather
forecasts in that they provide a longer lead time, say, three
months or sometimes even six months. The question,
however, is: since weather forecasts beyond seven days
tend to decrease in accuracy, how can SCFs provide useful
forecasts if they have a longer lead time period
The reason is because over the years, certain skills in
predicting “anomalies” or “departures from the normal” in
the seasonal average of the weather have been
developed. These anomalies are usually associated with
the earth’s surface conditions that affect the climate like
the sea surface temperature. These are best manifested
in the phenomenon of the El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO)—both in its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña)
phases—which causes much of the climate variability in
the world.
SCFs as probabilistic type of forecasts
In presenting the SCFs for Region 2, Ms. de Guzman
introduced the example of the “spinning wheel” which is
divided into three terciles representing three ranges of
values of rainfall. One tercile represents the values in the
lower range; another, the values in the middle range; and
the other, in the upper range. In short, each of the terciles
refers to values that are either: (a) lower than the normal
amount of rainfall; (b) near (or middle range) the normal
amount of rainfall; or (c) above the normal amount of
rainfall. Without any forecasting, the probability of any one
of these three terciles occurring will always be the same—
one out of three—every time one spins the wheel.
With forecasting (SCFs), however, based on
measuring and calculating the climate “anomalies”
mentioned earlier, one is able to predict the higher (or
lower) probability of either one of the terciles occurring
than when no forecasts were made.
Responding to El Niño/La Niña: Isabela’s strategies for calamity mitigation
The province of Isabela is no stranger to natural calamities. In view of its geographical location and topographic characteristics, it is
regularly frequented by occurrences brought about by climate variability. In the past two or three decades, for instance, the province has
seen the onslaught of El Niño/La Niña occurrences.
Because of this, the provincial government, in particular, the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPA), has learned not only to
cope with the adverse effects of such extreme climate events after their occurrence but also to adopt agricultural preparation strategies
before and during the onset of the phenomena.
During the seminar-workshop sponsored by the project on “Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) and
decisionmakers in agriculture” in Ilagan, Isabela on February 14, 2008, the province’s provincial corn and rice coordinators, Mr. Florencio
Viesca Jr. and Mr. Romeo Cadauan, respectively, presented some of these strategies adopted by the OPA in response to El Niño/La Niña
events before, during, and after said events’ onset.
Before the occurrence of said climate phenomena, the OPA conducts a series of information dissemination activities on their possible
and expected effects as well as the alternative crops that can be recommended for planting during this time. The dissemination activities
take the form of meetings, briefings, radio, television and print features, and leaflets, among others. During the onslaught of the calamity,
the OPA, together with all the local government units (LGUs) of the province, the Department of Agriculture’s Cagayan Valley Integrated
Agricultural Research Center and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, and other partners monitor the extent of damage caused among the
rice and corn farms within the province and, if and where necessary, position available irrigation pumps in required locations.
After the calamity, meanwhile, a team of concerned agencies first validate the areas affected by computing for the amount of damages
and losses caused by the calamity. Thereafter, the Department of Agriculture and sometimes the LGUs, under counterpart agreements,
implement the seed rehabilitation program by giving out free corn, vegetable, and legume seeds to farmers. In addition, the provincial
government has also recently advocated the idea of crop diversification by encouraging the affected farmers to plant legume and vegetable
seeds, apart from corn, on at least a small portion of their farm areas.