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Table 2. El Niño and La Niña episodes
during the past decade
Period
May 1994 – April 1995
October 1995 – April 1996
June 1997 – May 1998
August 1998 – July 2000
November 2000 – March 2001
June 2002 – April 2003
August 2004 – March 2005
Source:
Event
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
La Niña
El Niño
El Niño
Climate Prediction Center-National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(CPC-NOAA), 2006
most evident among rainfed farmers who rely exclusively
on rainfall to irrigate their crops.
Other agricultural businesses that operate with
better resources and more modern technology on better
farmlands are also not spared from the same risks.
Prolonged dry spells, excessive rains, and flooding are
critical events that could easily destroy a season’s crop.
The coming of rains signals the start of a new planting
season but the same gift from nature—or lack of it—could
easily wipe out a standing crop. The need to safeguard
the interests and investments of local farmers and
industry players is therefore of great importance.
To address these concerns, the Philippine
government has been implementing a range of risk
management programs for farmers and other agricultural
stakeholders. These include price stabilization measures,
typhoon and/or drought relief, livestock and feed
subsidies, fertilizer, and other input subsidies as well as
subsidized crop insurance schemes. Specialized projects
are also being implemented in collaboration with local
and international partners to aid in the effort.
An example of this workable partnership is the
ACIAR-funded Bridging the gap between SCF and
decisionmakers in agriculture. The project is a
collaborative undertaking between the governments of
Australia and the Philippines, through the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA), the Philippine Institute for
Development Studies (PIDS), and the Leyte State
University, for the Philippines. It essentially deals with
managing climate variability through better forecast
information and better utilization and appreciation of
these forecasts by agricultural decisionmakers.
Though not much could be done when a “prolonged
drought” or a “super typhoon” strikes, there is still a wide
array of applicable tools that could help agricultural
workers mitigate environmental challenges and decide
intelligently in the face of seasonal uncertainties. A crop
farmer will have a healthier chance of going through
seasonal abnormalities and coming out unscathed if he
is well informed. The decision to push through with the
cropping season should ideally be the product of an
enlightened process.
A decade of destruction and challenges from
seasonal climate variability should have provided ample
insights and learning to everyone concerned. The coming
years should now serve as testament to this added
wisdom, ushering in a more secured, productive, and
profitable era for rice and corn farmers in the country. (SCF
Project Updates, December 2006)
El Niño is here again!
El Niño is back and here to stay, at least until the first
half of year 2007.
Climate monitoring bodies from all over the
world, including the local meteorological agency PAGASA,
have confirmed that the warm phase of the El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is continuing to progress. As
of October this year, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in
the central equatorial Pacific have been rising and the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been decreasing.
Over the past six months, most of the statistical and
coupled model forecasts employed by climate monitoring
agencies like the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in the
United States have projected warmer conditions in the
tropical Pacific. Weaker-than-average low-level equatorial
easterly winds have also been observed across most of
the region. CPC stated that collectively, current oceanic
and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with the early
stages of El Niño.