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18 SCF Folio Figure 1. Electronic version of the Climate Indicator signs created to allow for easy distribution to farmers and consultants via email Peninsula), and Tarlee (mid-north) in South Australia this season. An electronic version of the signs has also been created to help with communicating and distributing the outputs via email. Some focus group sessions will be held for farmers in these areas to discuss how to use the information in the signs in decisionmaking. The ACIAR project Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecasts and decisionmakers in agriculture has been assessing how the information on the signs has been used in decisionmaking and analyzing the relative weight that should be given to measurements such as the level of water stored in the soil or rainfall to date versus predictions of the coming season based on seasonal climate forecast. (SCF Project Updates, June 2007) Giving better seasonal climate forecasts and climate-related information The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PAGASA), the country’s national meteorological agency, offers a range of climate information products on a regular basis. It has around 10 advisories/information products designed to inform and warn the populace on upcoming climatic/weather conditions. More significant to seasonal climate variability are PAGASA’s seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs). SCF is one of the tools which could help farmers and decisionmakers better prepare for seasonal variability. SCF applies probabilistic principles in projecting climatic deviations. PAGASA uses seasonal predictions from both national and international climate centers in coming up with its own forecasts for a certain period. International agencies tapped for the purpose are the National Center for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center (NCEP/CPC), International Research Institute for
19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness, and reliabilty of PAGASA climate information products Product Awareness Usefulness * (%) Reliability ** (%) (%) 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 Monthly weather situation and outlook 19 1 4 4 8 4 2 6 6 6 Annual seasonal climate forecast 19 1 5 7 2 2 1 4 8 5 El Niño/La Niña advisory 94 11 16 38 16 13 9 26 24 18 Tropical cyclone warning 85 5 14 32 16 14 6 22 27 18 10-day advisory 7 - 1 5 - 1 - 2 2 1 Farm weather forecast 5 - 1 1 - 2 - 1 - 2 Philippine Agroclimatic Review and Outlook 2 - - - - 2 - - - 2 Press release on significant events 2 - - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 Phil agri-weather forecast 4 - - 2 - 1 - 1 1 1 Climate impact assessment bulletin for agriculture 4 - - 2 - 1 - 1 1 1 * Usefulness rating: 1 - not useful, 2 - somewhat useful, 3 - useful, 4 - highly useful, 5 - vital ** Reliability rating: 1 - unreliable, 2 - somewhat reliable, 3 - reliable, 4 - excellent Source: Reyes et al. 2006 Climate and Society (IRI), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ADPC and IRI 2005). PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC) comes up with monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts, and an annual seasonal climate forecast or outlook. It uses the average values of five different statistical techniques in forecasting rainfall. These include the analogue method, Fourier analysis, Rainman, Principal Component Analysis using sea surface temperature as predictor, and climate predictability tool (CPT). Fourier analysis uses long time data series; Rainman is a software developed by the Australian Center for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) that uses ENSO indicators; and CPT is a forecasting tool from the IRI. Though the list of climate information products from PAGASA is long, only El Niño/La Niña Advisory and Tropical Cyclone Warning effectively reach majority of the farming populace. From the study of Reyes et al. (2006), 94 percent of farmers in Isabela were aware of ENSO forecasts while 85 percent received tropical cyclone warnings. The rest of the information products got a low awareness rating ranging from 2 percent to 19 percent. Usefulness and reliability ratings were acceptable with only a few expressing extreme discontent on the products (Table 1). However, the figures still indicate that much has to be done to properly disseminate climatic information, improve its accuracy, and package the products in more useful ways. PAGASA has a wide range of meteorological products, which could address a variety of climate-related queries and informational needs among farmers. The usefulness of these products would be in question if access to them by target clienteles is impaired. An advocacy to use wider communication channels would address this concern. Television and radio programs have proven to be effective means of bringing information to farmers in the countryside. Print materials in layman form and preferably written in the local dialect would also help a lot in informing farmers and other agricultural stakeholders. Another related challenge is the updating and review of national meteorological archives. Data from all meteorological stations should be cleaned and completed for ease in analysis and data processing. This would also open up a lot of windows for the application of new technologies and methodologies like the application of simulation modeling in assessing the impact of climatic variability. A more complex issue to tackle is the upgrading of PAGASA’a capacity to come up with localized seasonal climate forecasts, aside from the national and/or regional forecasts it currently gives. Many farmers had aired the need for more area-specific advisories/information given the archipelagic nature of the country and the diversity of local climate/weather conditions. This is a more longterm goal, which would require huge investments in establishing local facilities and training necessary manpower. A possible mechanism to make this more attainable is to link with local governments and communities for manpower and resources support. PAGASA has been doing much to provide the best meteorological service to the country’s population but the challenge to do better is ever pressing. The bottom line is that forecasts and other climate-related information should reach the most number of users at the earliest possible time. (SCF Project Updates, December 2007)
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17: Communicating through climate indic
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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