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44 SCF Folio Emerald and Goondiwindi (Queensland); Gunnedah, Wagga Wagga, and Deniliquin (New South Wales); Mildura and Nhill (Victoria); and Snowtown (South Australia). To classify years as El Niño or La Niña, we have used a list provided by the Bureau of Meteorology (Table 1). Any year that does not appear as El Niño or La Niña between 1900 and 2005 in this list was classified as a neutral year by the Bureau. Graphs Three types of graphs were analyzed. Figure 2 shows the probability of there being a particular number of days of frost [minimum temperature less than 2 degrees Celsius (C)] per year at Snowtown, South Australia, throughout the historical record from 1900 to 2005. Also shown are the probability curves for El Niño, La Niña or neutral years, as well as the curve created from the last 20 years of data. Figure 3 presents the latest date of a frost each year at Snowtown, i.e., the probability that the last frost each year has occurred by the given date. Again, the probability curves for the three ENSO classifications are shown as well as the last 20 years. The final set of graphs analyzed were again looking at the latest date of frost, except that this time, a frost was defined as getting a minimum temperature less than 0 degrees C. Discussion From Figure 2, it can be seen that there are generally more frost days in El Niño years at Snowtown compared to La Niña years. For example, in a La Niña year, 50 percent of the time, there are over 14 frost days, whereas in an El Niño year, 50 percent of the time, there are over 18 frost days. This distinction between the frequency of frost in El Niño and La Niña years was apparent in all the locations looked at in this study. It is interesting to also note from Figure 2 that the number of frosts in the last 20 years was less than the historical average. However, this observation was not consistent across the other sites analyzed, with many showing average frost frequencies over the last 20 years and two sites showing an increase in frequency. Figure 3 displays the latest date of a frost each year at Snowtown, revealing little distinction between El Niño and La Niña years, particularly in the latest 30 Table 1. El Niño and La Niña years as defined by the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Figure 2.Probability distribution of the number of frost days (less than 2 degrees Celsius measured at Stevenson Screen height) at Snowtown, South Australia El Niño La Niña 1902 1903 1905 1906 1911 1909 1913 1910 1914 1916 1919 1917 1925 1924 1940 1928 1941 1938 1946 1950 1952 1955 1953 1956 1959 1964 1965 1970 1969 1971 1972 1973 1977 1974 1982 1975 1987 1988 1991 1996 1993 1998 1994 1997 2002 Figure 3.Probability distribution of the latest date of frost (less than 2 degrees Celsius measured at Stevenson screen height) at Snowtown, South Australia
45 It is the timing of the latest frosts that are useful to know because they often hit unexpectedly, but it seems that ENSO does not influence this enough to be of much use in terms of forecasting potential. percent of frosts. Similarly, most of the other sites analyzed did not show much distinction between El Niño and La Niña in terms of the latest date of frost, particularly for the last 20–30 percent of the years. Graphs showing the latest date of frost, where a frost was defined as less than zero degrees Celsius were also analyzed. Many locations showed some distinction with the last frosts more likely to occur in El Niño years, but most still showed little distinction for the latest 20 percent of frosts. Figure 3 also demonstrates the wide range in the last date of a frost from year to year. For example, the last frost (
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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