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30 SCF Folio PAGASA hosts seminar-workshop on seasonal climate forecasts The last of the series of seminar-workshops on “The Role of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Agriculture Sector” was held at the Pine Hills Hotel in Malaybalay, Bukidnon on 27 November 2008. It was well attended and featured speakers coming from PAGASA, Visayas State University (VSU), and the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) who discussed current issues affecting the climate and corn industry in Bukidnon. The workshop also featured Engr. Alson G. Quimba, Acting Provincial Agricultural Officer of Bukidnon, who talked about how climate change is becoming to be a reality in the province, what with new climate pattern occurrences like strong typhoons and flooding taking place in the province, and discussed how the province is dealing with these. Meanwhile, the keynote speaker, the Hon. Jose Ma. R. Zubiri, governor of Bukidnon, in a message read on his behalf, recognized the importance of the seminar-workshop, particularly in the applicability of the research results for use by decisionmakers in agriculture, and said that the local government welcomes projects like these because they allow them to look at their strengths and limitations for the good of the people. A total of 85 participants representing the different municipalities of Bukidnon, municipal and city agriculturists, officials from the Governor’s office, and members of the academe attended the seminarworkshop. Members of the project team lectured on climate concepts to acquaint key decisionmakers in agriculture in Bukidnon on the possible role of seasonal climate forecasts in improving productivity and overall welfare of the agriculture sector in the province. Also presented were studies relating to riskefficient planting schedule for corn in Bukidnon, and climate variability and corn farming in Bukidnon as well as the Decisionmaking Game based on SCF using a spinning wheel. Dr. Canesio D. Predo, Assistant Professor of VSU, led the game where the participants were able to apply the knowledge they gained from the workshop. Ms. Jennifer P.T. Liguton, Director for Research Information of PIDS, then presented the different communication pathways to be employed by the project in disseminating its various outputs to agricultural stakeholders. Finally, Dr. Flaviana D. Hilario of PAGASA, in her closing remarks, assured the participants that regular SCF updates will be provided to the province since Bukidnon is one of the pilot areas of the project. (SCF Project Updates, September 2008)
31 Analysis and research/survey results Assessing rainfall variability in Philippine study sites: the Rainman application Because of its geographical location, the ranging from one season to over a year in advance. This Philippines is prone to extreme weather and improvement means that impending extreme climate climate events. Floods and droughts have, for events can be predicted with greater accuracy. instance, been common occurrences in the country especially in the recent past resulting in massive destruction of property, loss of life, diseases, and food shortages. Sectors of the economy, including agriculture and water resources, have likewise been severely affected by these weather/climate events. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) monitors weather and climate conditions from both local and global perspectives. It has a network of weather stations strategically located all over the country that monitor meteorological and weather elements. These parameters are then analyzed using various statistical techniques and procedures to come up with weather or climate forecasts. Provision of these forecasts and early warnings of potential crop failure due to drought, with a lead time of 30-60 days before harvest, is important because it enables policy/decisionmakers to implement alternative courses of action to mitigate potential damages to the agricultural Predictability of the climate from season-to-season and year-to-year arises from the interaction of the ocean and the atmosphere. The best-known example is the ENSO phenomenon. The combination of the slowly changing temperature of the oceans and their interactions with the atmosphere provides a degree of predictability for seasonal climate in many regions of the world. Based on global studies, ENSO and other sea surface temperature anomalies are known to influence global climate, altering rainfall and other climate variables throughout much of the tropics and subtropics and in a few locations in mid-latitudes. Seasonal climate prediction is based on the expectation of the effects of these influences in the coming season. In this regard, climate forecasters normally ask two basic questions: (1) what will the sea surface temperature anomalies be in the coming season and (2) how will they impact on global climate There are models available which can evaluate the effects of ENSO on seasonal climatic patterns and on the sector. Seasonal forecasting is an attempt to provide information on Statistical test results on forecasts of rainfall in Southeast Asia (Analysis of historical data—1903 to 1995—using SST Phase forecast in September for rainfall the likely conditions of the weather period: Oct to Dec, leadtime of 0 months) several months in advance. The Climate Information, Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC), one of the sections of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch (CAB) of PAGASA, is responsible for the issuance and dissemination of seasonal climate forecasts and advisories. With the recent advancement in the understanding of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and climate prediction, seasonal to interannual prediction has made it possible to predict climate with improved accuracy and with lead times
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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