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36 SCF Folio In the Philippines, PAGASA had already come up with local advisories related to the progressive evolution of the current El Niño episode. The meteorological agency reported that the event is likely to intensify during the next three months and persist through April to June 2007. Below normal rainfall conditions were already observed by PAGASA over the past months in parts of northern and western Luzon, most of northern Panay Island including Iloilo, southern Cebu, the western parts of Bohol and Zamboanga provinces, most parts of the CARAGA provinces, Davao Oriental, eastern part of Davao del Norte and the southern tip of Davao del Sur, and South Cotabato. Only the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the occurrence of destructive typhoons had brought above normal rainfall in affected areas, as witnessed in the recent typhoons Milenyo, Neneng, Ompong, and Paeng. Rainfall forecasts for November included below normal projections in most parts of the country, except in Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, South Cotabato, and Surigao, and Regions IVB, V, and VIII where rainfall is forecast to be normal. This early, the threat to the country’s water reserves is already being felt by some sectors. Possible shortage of water supply in Metro Manila is a cause of alarm because the low rainfall volume might lead to a lower water level in Angat Dam. Dependent on rainfall to replenish its water reserve, the dam supplies water to Metro Manila’s 12 million residents and irrigates the vast agricultural lands of Central Luzon. The same problem is expected to be experienced in other parts of the country as El Niño intensifies. The government has already advised everybody to continue implementing appropriate measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of the episode on agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, health and sanitation, and other affected sectors. (SCF Project Updates, December 2006) Researcher presents findings on SCF impact simulation Dr. Felino Lansigan, Professor of Statistics at the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), presented the results of his study titled “Analysis of the effects of climate variability on corn productivity in the Philippines” on September 22, 2006 at the NEDA sa Makati Building, Makati City. Working with the ACIAR-funded project Bridging the gap between SCF and decisionmakers in agriculture, Dr. Lansigan discussed the initial results of his research during the “Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS” before an appreciative crowd of government and NGO representatives. He presented the effects of climatic variability on corn yield under different El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) phases in three different locations, Dr. Lansigan succeeded in showing the effect of climate variability on corn productivity through yield variability and yield differences within and between locations...As a positive note, he ended by stressing that the vulnerability of corn-growing areas may be reduced given appropriate coping strategies. namely: (a) Los Baños, Laguna, (b) Ilagan, Isabela, and (c) Malaybalay, Bukidnon. In assessing the impact of SCF, Dr. Lansigan classified historical weather data into three categories: “dry (El Niño) year,” “wet (La Niña) year,” and “average (neutral) year.” He also generated synthetic weather data for the crop yield—climate variability analysis using applicable software to complete a 50-year weather data series. The CERES-maize model, an ecophysiologicalbased crop simulation model for corn, was used to simulate yields given varying climatic and cultural conditions. Results showed that mean crop yields in the three locations were significantly different during wet and dry years. Simulated corn yields in Ilagan gave the highest coefficient of variation (CV) of 35.2 percent during average years, and 27.7 percent and 27.0 percent during wet and dry years, respectively. Los Baños gave the lowest CV at 17.7 percent during wet years, and 28.9 percent and 26.4 percent during dry and average years, respectively. In Malaybalay, respective CVs for dry,
37 average, and wet years were calculated at 22.4, 23.3, and 31.6 percent. Resulting figures also showed negligible yield differences during wet season cropping and appreciable changes during dry season cropping. Dr. Lansigan succeeded in showing the effect of climate variability on corn productivity through yield variability and yield differences within and between locations. Among the study sites, Ilagan, Isabela was found to be the most vulnerable to climatic variability especially during dry years, while Los Baños, Laguna proved to be the least vulnerable. As a positive note, Dr. Lansigan ended by stressing that the vulnerability of corn-growing areas may be reduced given appropriate coping strategies. (SCF Project Updates, December 2006) SCF use and indigenous knowledge among corn farmers in Isabela Corn farmers in Isabela, Philippines hold both seasonal climate forecast (SCF) and indigenous forecasting means in high regard. A survey done among corn growers in the province showed that seasonal climate information from both traditional and scientific sources greatly influenced farming decisions on working capital, type of crop to plant, and time of planting. When asked on why SCF is important, 96 percent of the respondents answered that it aids in onfarm decisionmaking as it allows Members of the PIDS-SCF Project Team meet with municipal agriculturists in Isabela. farmers to prepare for climatic events. Many also recognized the role of climatic information in deciding when to plant or commence the cropping season. At the same time, a long list of traditional forecasting methods was also gathered from many of the interviewed farmers. To predict the coming of rains, local folks looked for a variety of signs ranging from the appearance of heavenly bodies like the moon, stars, sun, and clouds; behavior of local fauna like insects, birds, and farm animals; and the performance of local flora like the flowering of orchids and grasses, and fruiting of trees. One third of the farmers also believed in superstitions when commencing farm activities. Good luck and bad luck beliefs influenced decisions on the timing of and cultural approaches to certain farm operations. Though not with scientific basis, these beliefs and practices are part of the indigenous make-up of local farmers and should be regarded when pushing for the adoption of applicable technological interventions. Interestingly, majority of farmers believed in the reliability of indigenous weather forecasting means. Among the respondents, only 25 percent voiced out that such methods were unreliable. The figures look good as the overall responses of farmers reinforced the claim on the significance of seasonal variability and climate forecast. However, enough caution should be exercised when interpreting things. Though many claimed to appreciate SCF, actual application seemed to be not enough. The start of each cropping season was still principally based on the coming of rains and the traditional seasonal schedule. Among those who acknowledged the influence of SCF on the general timing of planting in farm operations, only 1 percent claimed actual application on the planting
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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