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26 SCF Folio of occurrence of the particular forecasts so that farmers may have a wider outlook or range for the planning of their farming activities, PAGASA responded that SCFs are really based on the principle of probability. In disseminating the forecasts, therefore, the degree of probability is always included. Because of this, the meaning of the probability principle needs to be clearly explained to the farmers and other end-users, especially on the implications. Director Nilo further emphasized that in climate science, there are datasets on which forecasts are based and certain methodologies are followed. Per the datasets and methodology available at the PAGASA, the level of a 100 percent—or even just 90 percent— accuracy in terms of the probability or likelihood of the occurrence of the forecasts cannot yet be delivered. In Isabela, he said that the highest probability that they can give, for instance, for rainfall to be above normal during a La Niña period is only 50 percent. Nonetheless, PAGASA is continuously trying to improve its skills in this particular aspect so that they can respond better to the needs of farmers. Relatedly, PAGASA noted, in response to another query, that the standard coverage of a weather station, according to the World Meteorological Organization, is 50-km radius. Forecasts for a site made on the basis of such radius are hence quite effective or skillful. Possible strategic alliance with tradersfinanciers on provision of input selection advice to farmers based on climate forecasts received In order to have a better matching of seed varieties with the cropping season, there were suggestions and likewise an agreement in principle to have a better understanding by both the farmers and traders/ suppliers of the various seed varieties suitable to certain months of the year. In response to the points raised by some farmers on the quality of seeds, in particular, hybrid corn seeds, being sold to them by certain seed companies and traders, the research director of the Isabela State University (ISU) suggested the setting up of an independent body that would assess the performance of seeds being sold by seed companies vis-à-vis their suitability to the farms as well as cropping season. In this regard, it was noted that a strategic alliance between traders-suppliers and farmers could possibly be established through the help of the MAOs and PAGASA. By regularly supplying traders-suppliers with information and explanations of the meaning and interpretations of SCFs and what possible implications these might have on the characteristics and performance of various input varieties, traders-suppliers may be influenced to keep in stock the appropriate inputs and varieties as well as be enjoined to provide the corresponding appropriate advice to farmers on the varieties that will prove to do well under such circumstances. Conversely, farmers may likewise indicate their preferences of the varieties they need given their farms’ circumstances to which traderssuppliers may correspondingly adjust their supplies. A final note Dr. Celia Reyes concluded the seminar-workshop by providing a summary of the following major agreements reached as well as the next steps considered: • A MOA between the PAGASA and the province of Isabela, through the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist (OPA), will be forged to ensure that all SCFs and other PAGASA climate information/products reach the stakeholders/decisionmakers in agriculture in the province. • PAGASA will now provide modified forecasts on the basis of probabilities as explained earlier. These modified forecasts therefore call for a clearer explanation of the meaning and implication of the probabilities. • The PAGASA central and local offices, with the help and collaboration of the OPA and MAOs, will forge agreements/arrangements with the local media, especially radio stations, on the regular dissemination and explanation of SCFs and their meanings/ implications to farmers and farmer-groups through special programs focusing on agriculture-related climate information and forecasts. • Finally, strategic alliances with traderssuppliers may be explored where, through regular information and briefings supplied/given to them by PAGASA and the OPA, they may be used as conduits in passing on such information and giving appropriate advice to farmers on the corresponding farm inputs selection that the latter should make. (SCF Project Updates, March 2008)
27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but... Gian Carlo Borines, Rotacio Gravoso, Jude Nonie Sales, and Ulderico Alviola Yes, seasonal climate forecast (SCF) is popular among corn farmers in Bukidnon. This is according to a recent study on “Corn farmers’ decisionmaking based on probabilistic climate forecast” conducted by a team of researchers from the Visayas State University (VSU) based on the results of focus group discussions among farmers from selected sites in the province of Bukidnon in Mindanao. The study found that farmers are aware of SCF, their sources of which included television, radio, and the PAGASA station in Malaybalay City. At the same time, it was learned that PAGASA and the City Agriculture Office often hold seminars and workshops on the SCF. Notwithstanding this, however, “farmers depend more on their indigenous climate forecasting than on SCF,” the study reported. For one, the study found that farmers think of climate forecasts as deterministic rather than probabilistic [please see explanation of probabilistic nature of SCFs in SCF Project Updates March 2008, page 2]. Thereupon, if the forecasts given do not jibe with what climatic condition actually takes place, then farmers tend to lose confidence in the forecasts. They also said that climate forecasts are hard to understand. Thus, they suggested that said forecasts use simple words and be downscaled to their locality. The decisionmaking exercises utilizing hypothetical forecasts showed that under unfavorable climate forecasts, farmers would apply coping mechanisms like growing short-season crops, backyard gardening, raising animals, and finding a job in sugarcane plantations and industries in Malaybalay City. Generally, farmers’ decisions were aimed to maximize profits and minimize cost. (SCF Project Updates, June 2008) Cebu workshop stresses need to disseminate SCF The need to disseminate seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) has been repeatedly underscored by researchers and farmers alike in the seminarworkshop on the “Role of seasonal climate forecast” held on September 29, 2008 at the Cebu Business Hotel, Cebu City. Participated in by about 40 farmers, representatives from the agricultural offices in Cebu, researchers from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Visayas State University (VSU), the academe, and Cebu’s media, the workshop was part of the dissemination effort of the project, “Bridging the gap between seasonal climate forecast and decisionmakers in agriculture,” a collaborative project between Philippine implementing agencies—PAGASA, PIDS, and the VSU—and their Australian counterparts. During the workshop, Dr. Flaviana Hilario, Weather Services Chief of the Climatology and Agrometeorology Branch (CAB) of PAGASA, noted that SCF is among PAGASA’s climate products and services that have been introduced to the public, particularly farmers and fisherfolks, in recent years and whose benefits to farmers and fisherfolks, especially during occurrences of climatic anomalies, have been cited by several studies. She acknowledged, however, that its dissemination to its intended end-users has been wanting. In his presentation, meanwhile, Dr. Canesio Predo of the VSU, said that the use of SCF allows farmers to improve
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47 and 48: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 49 and 50: 49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

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