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Tropical cyclone average tracks
Jan to Mar
Apr to Jun
Jul to Sep
January to April are 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.5, respectively. This
suggests that these months have the slimmest chance of
tropical cyclone activities in the Philippines throughout
the year. Starting May and June, however, an average of
one tropical cyclone for each month occurs and then
jumps to about three each for the months of July, August,
and September. By October and November, an estimate
of about two per month occurs, signaling the start of
descent of the cyclone activities in the Philippines, with
just about one occurrence for the month of December.
Although there is a recession in the number of
tropical cyclone occurrences in the months of October
to December, it is to be noted nevertheless that most of
the destructive cyclones/typhoons that have taken place
were recorded during this period. This is due to the fact
that the paths of these disturbances have, as seen in the
illustrations, a much wider range of possible tracks over
Luzon and Visayas during this period. At the same time,
there is also a high probability that these cyclones tend
to cross the archipelago, creating much damage to the
populace.
Is there any change in the cyclones/typhoons' path
when seasonal phenomena like El Niño and La Niña take
place At the moment, the weather bureau is in the
process of further tracking the average paths of tropical
cyclones and determining if there is a difference in their
usual path during the periods of El Niño and La Niña.
(Economic Issue of the Day Vol. V, Nos. 3&4-December 2005)
References
http://hurricanewaves.org
http://www.hko.gov.hk/informtc/nature.htm
http://www.ndcc.gov.ph
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/info.htm
http://www.wikipedia.org
Lucero, A. Warning system for tropical cyclones in the Philippines.
Powerpoint presentation. PAGASA.
Verceles, E. Climate concepts, climate of the Philippines, and
ENSO. Powerpoint presentation. PAGASA.