Read More - Philippine Institute for Development Studies

More documents

Recommendations

Info

48 SCF Folio Peso value of SCF use in Bohol Province In an economic assessment of seasonal climate forecast (SCF) use in corn production decisions of farmers in Bohol Province as conducted by Ms. Zyra May Holmes and Dr. Canesio Predo of the Visayas State University (VSU), the authors calculated the economic value of using SCF for corn cropping system to be around PhP51.22/ha/season. This is based on the summary statistics of simulated results showing that the stochastic net returns of cropping choice without SCF ranged from PhP2,084.47 to PhP2,837.63/ha/season with a mean of PhP2,439.31/ha/season. With SCF forecast, the stochastic net returns ranged from PhP2,119.24 to PhP2,934.21/ha/season with a mean of PhP2,490.53/ha/season. While the amount may be considered too minimal for individual smallholder corn farmers to change their cropping decision, the figure, however, is significant enough if the total corn-producing area of Bohol Province is to be considered. The authors made the calculations using the economic valuation model that they adopted (see feature on the Model). Valuing SCF use for corn farmers in Leyte Using the same model as the one they used in their case study in Bohol Province, Ms. Zyra May Holmes and Dr. Canesio Predo of the Visayas State University (VSU) estimated the economic value of using SCFs in corn farming areas in Mahaplag and Matalom municipalities in Leyte Province to be PhP119/ha/season. A forecast was found to be valuable in deciding when to plant corn. A forecast has value if the “with forecast “ scenario leads to different decisions and improved outcomes over those in the “without forecast” scenario. In the Leyte case study sites, the authors found that there was indeed value as shown in their resulting estimates. El Niño, La Niña, and neutral years as noted in Figure 1. However, to generate crop yields under different ENSO years, complete historical daily climate data such as rainfall, solar radiation, minimum and maximum temperatures, among others, are required. Because these data are not, however, available (or incomplete during the time of analysis) in the Philippine case study areas, Predo and Holmes decided to employ an alternative approach through the use of experts’ opinions/observations and farmers’ practices regarding corn yields during dry years (El Niño), wet years (La Niña), and normal years (neutral years). For each category of ENSO years, farmers were asked to provide corn yield estimates during good, average, and poor seasons. To see what the additional value of the information to be provided by the forecasts or the SCFs would be or what value any revision in a farmer’s prior decision would be, the RAINMAN international software package, developed under a previous ACIAR project, was used to provide the probability of a good, average, and poor season based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) system of forecasts...With this model/framework, it would thus be possible to calculate the value in peso terms for the farmers regarding the use of climate forecasts in making production decisions. Using these data, the stochastic decision tree analysis within the framework of expected monetary value or expected payoffs of the crop choice was estimated and valued. To see what the additional value of the information to be provided by the forecasts or the SCFs (amount of rainfall, timing of rainfall events, frequency of rainfall) would be or what value any revision in a farmer’s prior decision (when he had no forecasts) would be, the RAINMAN international software package, developed under a previous ACIAR project, was used to provide the probability of a good, average, and poor season based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) system of forecasts. The stochastic gross margin for the outcome of each season was calculated using the SIMETAR software to generate the cumulative distribution function of the expected value of crop choice for both “with SCF” and “without SCF” scenarios. The value of the SCF is derived as the difference between the expected value of choice with forecast and the expected value of action without forecast. With this model/framework, it would thus be possible to calculate the value in peso terms for the farmers regarding the use of climate forecasts in making production decisions. (SCF Project Updates, September 2007)
49 And on rice crop... Nueva Ecija farmers favor SCF over traditional forecasting methods Although they were aware of some indigenous forecasting methods, most of the rice farmers in two municipalities of Nueva Ecija have faith only in the seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) provided by PAGASA. This was the result of a survey conducted by PhilRice researchers among 120 farmers in Talugtug and Lupao, Nueva Ecija. The farmers served as participants in the study that aims to assess the potential farm-level value of SCF for rice-based farming systems in Central Luzon, Philippines. Both of the study sites are rainfed, flood plain belonging to the upper vega. Rice farmers plant only during the wet season and some farmers use supplementary irrigation sourced from deep well, small farm reservoir, and shallow tube wells. Random sampling was used to identify respondents based on the list of samples taken from the municipalities’ Agriculture Offices. Of the 120 respondents, 60 were taken from each of the two municipalities. Most of the respondents were male (83%), married (89%), and with an average age of 50 years. Their average number of years in rice farming was 25. Ninety-six percent of the farmers considered climate in their farm planning and decisionmaking. They also opined that early climate forecasts would help in their decisionmaking. However, the result of the survey also shows that most of the farmers do not have mitigation measures and risk-coping mechanisms in times of calamity. More than half of the respondents (74%) said that they were satisfied with the climate-related information that they have been receiving. As to the sufficiency and correctness of the information they received, 66 percent claimed that they received sufficient information while 47 percent said that the climate-related information that they received was correct. Farmers also said that most of the climate advisories that they received were on typhoons and El Niño, with their main sources of information coming from radio and television. (SCF Project Updates, September 2007) Looking for options amidst seasonal climate variability The vulnerability of agriculture to the unpredictability of nature is an age-old riddle, which has left even the wisest of men without answers. In most cases, people are given no other recourse but to adapt to environmental happenings and make do with what they have. In the Philippines where agricultural production represents a major source of livelihood for many rural people, the pressure to do better amidst seasonal climatic variability is immense. Scholars claim that climatic variability has great socioeconomic consequences and would worsen the disparity between the rich and poor. With more than 90 percent of local agricultural workers classified as smallholders, many could not afford a failed season of cropping. Measures to address this concern should therefore be multidimensional—tackling both physical and welfare issues. Safeguarding the livelihood and interests of local farmers entails concrete action in the social, economic, and political fronts. A major cause of the climatic variability and catastrophes being experienced in the country is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. ENSO shows its destructive face through two major phases: the El Niño or warm event and the La Niña or cold event. El
Page 1 and 2: SCF Folio A compilation of informat
Page 3 and 4: 3 Administration (PAGASA), the Phil
Page 5 and 6: 5 Learning the basics Dr. John Mull
Page 7 and 8: 7 The dry season is also subdivided
Page 9 and 10: 9 Tropical cyclone average tracks J
Page 11 and 12: 11 inevitably have impacts on the v
Page 13 and 14: 13 Reaching out and increasing awar
Page 15 and 16: 15 To ensure that the SCFs are rend
Page 17 and 18: Communicating through climate indic
Page 19 and 20: 19 Table 1. Awareness, usefulness,
Page 21 and 22: 21 Very often, this leads to extrem
Page 23 and 24: 23 agency, PAGASA, and sent out to
Page 25 and 26: 25 municipality. LGUs may send in t
Page 27 and 28: 27 SCF is popular in Bukidnon but..
Page 29 and 30: 29 the Provincial Agriculture Offic
Page 31 and 32: 31 Analysis and research/survey res
Page 33 and 34: 33 As the results in this initial s
Page 35 and 36: 35 Table 2. El Niño and La Niña e
Page 37 and 38: 37 average, and wet years were calc
Page 39 and 40: 39 local corn growers. In guiding f
Page 41 and 42: 41 dominated regions of northern Ne
Page 43 and 44: 43 The influence of ENSO on frost r
Page 45 and 46: 45 It is the timing of the latest f
Page 47: A model for valuing seasonal climat
Page 51 and 52: 51 Security against climate variabi
Page 53 and 54: 53 been dominating the Table 1. Bor
Page 55 and 56: 55 The need to help rice and corn f
Page 57 and 58: 57 Figure 1. Rainfall outlook, July
Page 59 and 60: 59 In Cebu: use of SCF gives higher
Page 61 and 62: 61 units of N fertilizer based on g
Page 63 and 64: 63 Determining corn farmers’ deci
Page 65 and 66: 65 Table 2. Farmers’ responses to
Page 67 and 68: 67 Project Team Australia Dr. Peter

Read More - Philippine Institute for Development Studies

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?