tivity on the carmel faul

The sample age cluster of ca. 137ka may possibly be supported by the age obtained
for a post collapse growth on a ceiling block, dated in Har-Tuv cave to be younger than
135ka (Kagan, 2002).
The age cluster of ca. 148ka was obtained from only four dated samples.
Nevertheless, it is corroborated by dated speleothem samples from Har-Tuv and Soreq
caves, which yielded ages between 144 and 155ka (Kagan, 2002). It might also be
corroborated by the age of material from the base of the shutter ridge studied by Zilberman
et al. (2006), which was dated to 146±20ka. It should be noted that the error margin for that
age is much larger than that of the age cluster from Denya Cave (147.6±5.4).
Although the age cluster that was determined by Denya Cave seismite samples at
160±45 has a large error, it might nevertheless be compared to the age, reported by
Zilberman et al. (2006), for a layer in a paleoseismic trench, which indicated subsidence of
a small basin south of the main fault, and was dated to 176±30ka. A collapsed pillar in
Soreq cave yielded a post-seismic age of ca. 163ka, and might also be compared to this age
cluster.
Ages obtained for Denya Cave age clusters can potentially be compared to other ages
from paleoseismological findings in Israel. The likelihood that this correlation is random
can be estimated by randomly picking age ranges from the interval of the entire record,
namely 0-206 ka. Each of the Denya Cave dated events cumulatively occupy a finite time
range, and the chance for it to correlate at random with the time occupied by other records
is given by the ratio between the latter (total=149.9ky) and the range of dated time
(204.1ky). Each separate event dated by Denya Cave speleo-seismites has a ~70% chance
of randomly correlating to one of the other ages dated by different studies. For all nine
dated events to correlate, this figure needs to be raised by the power of nine events recorded
in Denya Cave (i.e. {[149.9/204.1]^9}*100), giving a ~6% chance. Those numbers
consider the errors on the given ages, which are higher for most of the ages older than
100ka. The same estimation was done for the likelihood that the six age clusters, which
yielded younger ages than 100ka, dated from Denya Cave speleo-seismites could all
randomly be correlated to other dated seismic events. It was found that for there is a ~3%
chance of that to happen (i.e. {[49.9(time occupied by other dated events)/88.1(the range of
dated events)]^6}*100).
These results further enforce that age clusters obtained from Denya Cave speleoseismites
are not random, and are indicators of seismic events. This comparison also
74