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COMMeMOratiVe ISSue - Illuminating Engineering Society

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E N E R GY A D V I S O R<br />

Morgan: As their lumen output<br />

continues to increase and costs<br />

continue to come down, and as we<br />

develop better techniques for dealing<br />

with the thermal characteristics<br />

of LEDs, they will replace traditional<br />

lamp sources. As for the role of “new<br />

players,” only those who add value<br />

to channels of distribution will drive<br />

change and remain in the equation.<br />

Petras: We are already seeing significant<br />

numbers of LED substitutions<br />

for more conventional lighting systems<br />

in signage and transportation.<br />

There remain, however, challenges<br />

to the replacement of existing mainstream<br />

lighting systems. As efficiencies<br />

increase and lumens per dollar<br />

improve, we will see more applications.<br />

OLEDs have further to go down<br />

the research and development path—<br />

although you can’t predict invention.<br />

We don’t think the new “LED players”<br />

will necessarily change our traditional<br />

distribution system, but they certainly<br />

will raise the bar.<br />

Feldman: LED and OLED technologies<br />

may be the wave of the future<br />

and could move into general lighting<br />

applications as an efficient source.<br />

If the current trends continue then<br />

LEDs will very quickly meet the dollars<br />

per lumen threshold for general<br />

use. Today they play an important<br />

but limited role in the marketplace.<br />

This role will continue to get bigger<br />

as issues around efficacy, color<br />

consistency, thermal management<br />

and cost are resolved. The Next<br />

Generation Lighting Initiative in the<br />

Energy Policy Act of 2005 will provide<br />

needed funding for progress on<br />

these sources. As for the change in<br />

distribution, most of the major players<br />

in the LED industry are aligned<br />

with a current light source supplier. If<br />

this continues going forward, industry<br />

structure should stay intact.<br />

Do you expect more offshore outsourcing<br />

of lighting components, or<br />

have other market factors like shipping<br />

costs, manufacturing innovations,<br />

etc., precluded that expansion<br />

22 www.iesna.org

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