COMMeMOratiVe ISSue - Illuminating Engineering Society
COMMeMOratiVe ISSue - Illuminating Engineering Society
COMMeMOratiVe ISSue - Illuminating Engineering Society
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E N E R GY A D V I S O R<br />
Morgan: As their lumen output<br />
continues to increase and costs<br />
continue to come down, and as we<br />
develop better techniques for dealing<br />
with the thermal characteristics<br />
of LEDs, they will replace traditional<br />
lamp sources. As for the role of “new<br />
players,” only those who add value<br />
to channels of distribution will drive<br />
change and remain in the equation.<br />
Petras: We are already seeing significant<br />
numbers of LED substitutions<br />
for more conventional lighting systems<br />
in signage and transportation.<br />
There remain, however, challenges<br />
to the replacement of existing mainstream<br />
lighting systems. As efficiencies<br />
increase and lumens per dollar<br />
improve, we will see more applications.<br />
OLEDs have further to go down<br />
the research and development path—<br />
although you can’t predict invention.<br />
We don’t think the new “LED players”<br />
will necessarily change our traditional<br />
distribution system, but they certainly<br />
will raise the bar.<br />
Feldman: LED and OLED technologies<br />
may be the wave of the future<br />
and could move into general lighting<br />
applications as an efficient source.<br />
If the current trends continue then<br />
LEDs will very quickly meet the dollars<br />
per lumen threshold for general<br />
use. Today they play an important<br />
but limited role in the marketplace.<br />
This role will continue to get bigger<br />
as issues around efficacy, color<br />
consistency, thermal management<br />
and cost are resolved. The Next<br />
Generation Lighting Initiative in the<br />
Energy Policy Act of 2005 will provide<br />
needed funding for progress on<br />
these sources. As for the change in<br />
distribution, most of the major players<br />
in the LED industry are aligned<br />
with a current light source supplier. If<br />
this continues going forward, industry<br />
structure should stay intact.<br />
Do you expect more offshore outsourcing<br />
of lighting components, or<br />
have other market factors like shipping<br />
costs, manufacturing innovations,<br />
etc., precluded that expansion<br />
22 www.iesna.org