Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

Background
A main strategic objective of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council (MiHR) is to increase industry stakeholders’
ability to understand, anticipate and plan for labour supply and demand requirements. MiHR does this by providing
high-quality labour market information; regional and occupational hiring forecasts; and human resources management
based research. As part of this commitment, the Mining Industry Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) — the source
of the most extensive research and analysis available on Canada’s mining labour market — provides regular forecasts
of hiring needs for the Canadian mining industry.
One of MIWIN’s key activities is to produce model-based forecasts of changes in employment and hiring requirements.
The purpose of the study reported here is to forecast changes in employment and hiring requirements over two, five and
10 years, with particular emphasis on national, regional and occupational demands. This report expands on previous
research and forecasts (conducted in 2008 and 2009) that examined the dynamics of the mining labour markets in
British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Ontario.
The forecasts presented in this report analyze three different economic scenarios: contractionary, baseline and
expansionary. Each scenario generates a projection of changes in employment and hiring requirements from
2010 to 2020. This report also presents results from MiHR’s 2010 National Employer Survey, which complements the
model-based forecasts and provides key demographics from a representative sample of mining industry employers.
To date, the supply side of the labour market and speculations on the gap between labour supply and demand, are not
explicitly considered in MiHR forecasts. However, MiHR has begun research to investigate labour supply in the mining
industry. Such ongoing improvements are an integral part of the MIWIN program, and labour supply will be included in
future forecast reports.
Overview of the Report
This report is organized into two main sections. It begins with an overview of Canada’s mining industry followed by
national and regional forecasts of changes in employment and hiring requirements over a two-, five- and 10-year horizon.
The forecasts also include estimates of hiring needs for key occupational groups.
Chapter 2 begins with a definition and scope of the mining industry, which is used in the subsequent labour market
analyses and forecasts. The definition is followed by discussion of labour market trends in terms of employment,
turnover, productivity, educational attainment, the aging workforce, and diversity. Results from MiHR’s 2010 National
Employer Survey, along with other industry research, illustrate the trends throughout the section. The report also
discusses issues related to a tight labour market and making the best use of all possible sources of labour. This
section sets the stage and describes the context for the forecasts that follow.
Chapter 3 begins with a brief review of the key assumptions adopted to produce forecasts of total employment and
hiring requirements under contractionary, baseline and expansionary scenarios. The review is followed with forecasts
of hiring requirements both on a national and regional basis, as well as occupational breakdowns. Appendix A provides
details on forecast methodology.
The report concludes with a high-level discussion of the findings (Chapter 4) and offers some suggestions for future
directions in meeting the industry’s workforce needs. MiHR’s recommended approach to addressing current and existing
human resources challenges in the industry is used as a framework for the discussion.
8 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network