Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

Table 10
Total Mining Employment by Region
Baseline Scenario – 2012, 2015, 2020
Average Annual
Growth Rate
2012 2015 2020 2010–2020
Atlantic 10,400 9,400 8,000 −2.6%
Quebec 39,100 35,100 33,700 −1.9%
Ontario 41,900 38,700 36,100 −1.7%
Prairies 87,300 89,500 90,700 1.1%
British Columbia 20,600 19,600 18,700 −0.7%
Territories 3,900 4,000 4,000 1.8%
Canada 203,200 196,300 191,200 −0.4%
Source: Mining Industry Human Resources Council, Summer 2010.*
*Note: Employment growth rates differ year-over-year in the forecasting model. The last column presents the average annual growth rates of total mining employment
over the forecast period.
The non-retirement separation rate of two per cent a year used for all three scenarios applies to the mining industry in
Canada as whole. In reality, this rate underestimates the non-retirement separation occurring within individual regions.
This stems from the fact that an employee may leave one province but continue to work in the sector in another part of
the country. Indeed, the mining workforce tends to be more mobile than in other sectors. Therefore, regional estimates of
replacement requirements due to non-retirement separation presented in this report are considered to be conservative. 27
Regional Occupational Breakdowns
Hiring requirements by occupation are presented for each region. These regional occupational breakdowns are calculated
by applying the estimated proportion of the workforce in each occupation (known as an occupational coefficient) to the
forecasted total hiring requirements, for all occupations. These occupational coefficients are based on Statistics Canada
2006 Census data and industry consultation conducted for previous versions of the forecasting model. Limited availability of
census data precluded detailed analysis of occupational structure by region across all occupations in the mining industry. 28
Atlantic Region
Employment in the mining industry for the Atlantic region (Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick)
is expected to decline by an average of 2.6 per cent per year over the forecast period. However, there will be increased
hiring requirements in the baseline and expansion scenarios, largely due to the need to replace workers who will retire
or leave the sector for other reasons.
Table 11 summarizes the cumulative hiring requirements for the Atlantic region under the contractionary, baseline and
expansionary scenarios for short, medium and long-term horizons. Under the baseline scenario, it is estimated that
approximately 2,500 workers (representing 24 per cent of the current workforce) will need to be hired by 2020. However,
27 These assumptions can be varied when using MiHR’s online forecasting tool. Please visit www.mininghrforecasts.ca.
28 MiHR will continue to conduct primary research and analysis to further define the occupational coefficients, for each region.
2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts
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