Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

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Industry Context Compared with other sectors, employment in mining is highly volatile. Changes in total employment are directly related to international commodity prices and inversely related to gains in productivity. When coupled with a rapidly aging workforce and lack of growth in the Canadian labour force, the outlook is grim. The sector will face significant challenges in the near future in finding the right people to fill vacant positions. The Model for Forecasting Employment and Hiring Requirements Model development is an ongoing, iterative process. The current version of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council’s (MiHR) forecasting model used here represents a culmination of rigorous model development over the past five years. Detailed discussion of the model and its underlying assumptions are included in Chapter 3 and Appendix A. The forecasting model combines changes in employment due to economic factors and replacement requirements to obtain total hiring requirements. Changes in employment reflect fluctuations in commodity prices (based on prevalent consensus forecasts), gains in productivity, and the previous year’s employment. Replacement requirements are based on retirement rates (calculated based on the age distribution of the workforce and assuming an average retirement age of 59.5 years) and non-retirement separation rates. Three scenarios were developed to forecast national, regional and occupational hiring requirements over a 10-year time horizon. The baseline scenario uses a consensus forecast for the fluctuation of commodity prices and productivity changes. The expansionary scenario assumes greater-than-expected growth in commodity prices and productivity, while the contractionary scenario assumes lower-than-expected growth. National Forecasts of Employment and Hiring Requirements Forecasts for Canada are produced by summing the changes in employment and hiring requirement across the six regions in consideration. Under the baseline scenario, the Canadian mining industry will have to hire 100,000 new workers by the end of 2020 to satisfy replacement needs and to fill new positions. If commodity prices perform better than expected (the expansionary scenario), the cumulative hiring requirements could reach nearly 135,000 workers. Even under the contractionary scenario, the industry would still need to hire approximately 56,000 workers over the coming decade. Table 1 shows the cumulative change in employment and hiring requirements under the baseline scenario in 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2020. As shown, replacement requirement exceeds the change in employment attributable to commodity prices and labour productivity gains to create positive cumulative hiring requirements in the short-, medium- and long-term. 2 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network
Table 1 Total Hiring Requirements Forecasts – Canada Baseline Scenario – 2010, 2012, 2015, 2020 REGION YEAR CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT REPLACEMENT REQUIREMENTS RETIREMENT NON-RETIREMENT CUMULATIVE HIRING REQUIREMENTS Canada 2010 −1,000 3,710 3,980 6,690 2012 3,400 13,580 12,100 29,080 2015 −3,500 32,600 24,050 53,150 2020 −8,600 65,290 43,300 99,990 Source: Mining Industry Human Resources Council, Summer 2010. For Canada as a whole, cumulative hiring requirements represent nearly 50 per cent of the 2009 employment level, with hiring needs predicted to increase at a pace of two to five per cent annually across the forecast period. Regional Forecasts of Employment and Hiring Requirements Employment and hiring requirement forecasts were conducted for six regions: • Atlantic • Quebec • Ontario • Prairies • British Columbia • Territories Comparisons of hiring requirements between regions should be approached with caution, particularly given that the various factors influencing the forecast model differ from region to region. In addition, major differences exist in employment and hiring requirements across regions, based on workforce age profiles and on forecasts of commodity prices and labour productivity. For these reasons, separate forecasts are produced for each region, with the main drivers of the hiring requirements discussed in each corresponding section of the report. As shown in Table 2, cumulative hiring requirements vary significantly among regions. This is partly due to the size of the existing mining workforce in each region but is also driven by regional variations in age composition. Indeed, efforts in hiring are heavily dependent not only on regional context but on a wide range of factors. Employment growth differs among regions. In most cases, the hiring requirements are driven by replacement needs. However, in the Prairies, total employment is predicted to grow over the forecast period. As a result, cumulative hiring requirements for this region are a result of both growth and replacement requirements. 2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts 3
Page 1 and 2: Canadian Mining Industry Employment
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables and Figures Table 1
Page 7: Executive Summary The Canadian mini
Page 11: Occupational Forecasts of Employmen
Page 14 and 15: Background A main strategic objecti
Page 16 and 17: The NOC-S system 4 was developed by
Page 18 and 19: Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals
Page 20 and 21: Figure 3 Labour Productivity and Em
Page 22 and 23: under-represented groups. As noted
Page 24 and 25: Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly W
Page 26 and 27: Results from MiHR’s 2010 National
Page 28 and 29: Figure 11 Proportion of Mining Work
Page 30 and 31: In 2010, Women in Mining (WIM) Cana
Page 32 and 33: Immigrants to Canada — particular
Page 34 and 35: • an online portal where stakehol
Page 36 and 37: Table 7 presents the cumulative cha
Page 38 and 39: Table 9 Cumulative Hiring Requireme
Page 40 and 41: The top occupations in terms of hir
Page 42 and 43: if metal and mineral prices decline
Page 44 and 45: As shown in Figure 17, changes in e
Page 46 and 47: Figure 18 Total Hiring Requirements
Page 48 and 49: Table 17 Cumulative Hiring Requirem
Page 50 and 51: Table 20 shows the occupations with
Page 53 and 54: 4 Discussion In the near future, th
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A This appendix outlines t
Page 57 and 58: Appendix B This Appendix lists the
Page 60:
www.mihr.ca • www.mininghrforecas
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Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

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