Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

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Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals by Value of Production, 2008* UNIT QUANTITY (MILLIONS) $ VALUE (MILLIONS) Potash t 11 8,243 Nickel kg 251 5,856 Copper kg 581 4,438 Coal t 68 4,292 Gold g 95 2,824 Iron Ore t 31 2,427 Diamonds ct 15 2,404 Sulphur t 8 2,389 Cement t 14 1,792 Uranium kg 9 1,488 Source: Mining Association of Canada, Facts and Figures, 2009 * Data reported for 2008 are preliminary estimates. The aging labour force presents considerable challenges for Canadian employers, and the mining industry is no exception. To ensure that the necessary workers are available in the short- and long-term, mining employers are striving to attract groups that have been traditionally under-represented in the mining workforce, and to make the most of all available talent in the general labour force. These groups include new Canadians, Aboriginal peoples, youth and women. However, increasing the participation of under-represented groups will only partially manage the impacts of the aging workforce. Within a few years, the need to replace older workers will quickly surpass the availability of younger talent in the labour pool. Consequently, maintaining economic performance will also rely on improved productivity. This section provides an overview of mining employment, productivity, educational attainment, and key aspects of employment relations. Issues pertaining to the aging workforce and diversity are of primary importance to the long-term success of the sector and are each discussed in their own sections. Employment Employment in mining is more volatile than in most other Canadian industries, making long-term workforce planning a particular challenge in the sector. Mining sector employment has been on a slight downward trend for the past few decades. Employment was just over 200,000 workers in both 2007 and 2008 — slightly lower than the peak of 210,000 workers in 1984. MiHR’s recent research has demonstrated a strong positive correlation between employment and movements in commodity prices, as measured against the Minerals Price Index (MPI). The relationship is shown in Figure 2 and is a fundamental assumption in MiHR’s employment forecasting model. Forecasted movements in commodity prices are one of the key explanatory variables in the development of the forecasting models for hiring requirements discussed in Chapter 3. Please see Appendix A for more details. 12 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network
Figure 2 Mining Employment and the Minerals Price Index (MPI) 220,000 210,000 Linear employment trend during 1984 to 2002 400 350 200,000 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 Employment increase corresponds to MPI gains 300 250 200 150 100 50 150,000 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Employment Canada MPI 0 Sources: Mining Industry Human Resources Council; Statistics Canada; Bank of Canada. Labour Productivity Labour productivity is a complex concept that is influenced by many factors. On the whole, productivity tends to accelerate during periods of economic expansion and slow during a recession. In terms of employment, higher levels of productivity tend to be associated with contractions in employment needs. Declines in productivity tend to occur in a tight labour market. One explanation for this is that as talent becomes scarce, employers may begin to hire workers who have less experience and fewer skills, or are not quite ready to enter the workforce. Figure 3 shows that labour productivity in the Canadian mining industry (measured as real GDP per hour worked) steadily increased over the 1984 to 2005 period, at an average rate of 2.9 per cent 9 annually. Since 2006, however, productivity has declined by approximately four per cent per year. A study released in September 2009 by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) suggested that this decline was not necessarily related to changes in worker skills or technology and innovation; 10 rather, it may have been a direct result of higher commodity prices, which, in turn, made exploitation of marginal resource deposits profitable. Diamond mining expansion in the Territories has had a positive impact on overall productivity in the sector, as shown in Figure 4. Since the opening of the Ekati mine in the fall of 1998, labour productivity has increased at a compounded annual growth rate of 22 per cent. During this period, the Territories’ share of mining GDP has also increased rapidly: from 0.5 per cent in 1998 to over four per cent in 2008. 9 This is considered to be a reasonable estimate of trends in labour productivity for the sector. It is based on more than 20 years of data, covering several business cycles. 10 Centre for the Study of Livings Standards, A Detailed Analysis of the Productivity Performance of Mining in Canada, September 2009. 2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts 13
Page 1 and 2: Canadian Mining Industry Employment
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables and Figures Table 1
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary The Canadian mini
Page 9 and 10: Table 1 Total Hiring Requirements F
Page 11: Occupational Forecasts of Employmen
Page 14 and 15: Background A main strategic objecti
Page 16 and 17: The NOC-S system 4 was developed by
Page 20 and 21: Figure 3 Labour Productivity and Em
Page 22 and 23: under-represented groups. As noted
Page 24 and 25: Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly W
Page 26 and 27: Results from MiHR’s 2010 National
Page 28 and 29: Figure 11 Proportion of Mining Work
Page 30 and 31: In 2010, Women in Mining (WIM) Cana
Page 32 and 33: Immigrants to Canada — particular
Page 34 and 35: • an online portal where stakehol
Page 36 and 37: Table 7 presents the cumulative cha
Page 38 and 39: Table 9 Cumulative Hiring Requireme
Page 40 and 41: The top occupations in terms of hir
Page 42 and 43: if metal and mineral prices decline
Page 44 and 45: As shown in Figure 17, changes in e
Page 46 and 47: Figure 18 Total Hiring Requirements
Page 48 and 49: Table 17 Cumulative Hiring Requirem
Page 50 and 51: Table 20 shows the occupations with
Page 53 and 54: 4 Discussion In the near future, th
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A This appendix outlines t
Page 57 and 58: Appendix B This Appendix lists the
Page 60: www.mihr.ca • www.mininghrforecas

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