Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

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Several indicators were considered, based on their potential to explain changes in the level of employment in the mining industry at the regional level. Time series data was collected and plotted with respect to employment. Potential explanatory variables included: • Real compensation per hour worked • Real level of production • Industrial Materials Commodity Price Index • Minerals Price Index • Selected Commodity Price Indices such as gold and nickel (among others) • Labour productivity (real GDP per hour worked) Employment series for the mining industry were obtained from Statistics Canada. 31 Due to confidentiality rules, employment data is suppressed for various provinces and territories and was thus available only at higher level of aggregation. Model development was therefore restricted to the following regions: • Atlantic • Quebec • Ontario • Prairies • British Columbia • Territories Employment series dating back to 1984 were used in the creation of the employment models for the six regions. Furthermore, suppression of some provincial production data precluded the development of a weighted commodity price index specific to each region, as originally planned. However, in select cases where it was known that certain commodities represent a large proportion of the provincial total (for example iron ore in Quebec), individual price indices were used as explanatory variables. In all other cases, the Bank of Canada’s weighted Minerals Price Index was used. 32 In general, it was found that metal and mineral prices in conjunction with labour productivity (to explain longer-term trends in employment) were the most statistically significant at explaining variations in the mining employment series. More precisely, the number of mining jobs in each region is strongly related to commodity price levels, labour productivity levels and the previous year’s employment. There is a positive correlation between commodity prices and employment, and a negative correlation between labour productivity and employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise, employment levels increase, whereas labour productivity increases lead to a decrease in employment levels. Note that the previous year’s employment was also positively related to current employment. 31 Employment data was obtained through Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income and Expenditure Accounts Division, Statistics Canada, February 2009. 32 The Bank of Canada’s Minerals Price Index includes the following components: gold; silver; nickel; copper; aluminum; zinc; potash; lead; and iron. 50 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network
Appendix B This Appendix lists the National Occupational Category for Statistics (NOC-S) codes 33 used throughout the report to partly define the mining industry. MiHR is engaged in ongoing, iterative research to include more NOC-S codes in this definition of the sector in order to better capture Statistics Canada data related to mining. A111 Financial managers A112 Human resources managers A121 Engineering managers A371 Construction managers A381 Primary production managers (except agriculture) B011 Financial auditors and accountants B012 Financial and investment analysts B021 Specialists in human resources B211 Secretaries (except legal and medical) B541 Administrative clerks C012 Chemists C013 Geologists, geochemists and geophysicists C015 Other professional occupations in physical sciences C021 Biologists and related scientists C031 Civil engineers C032 Mechanical engineers C033 Electrical and electronics engineers C034 Chemical engineers C041 Industrial and manufacturing engineers C042 Metallurgical and materials engineers C043 Mining engineers C044 Geological engineers C048 Other professional engineers, n.e.c. C054 Land surveyors C111 Chemical technologists and technicians C112 Geological and mineral technologists and technicians C121 Biological technologists and technicians C131 Civil engineering technologists and technicians C132 Mechanical engineering technologists and technicians C133 Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians C134 Construction estimators C141 Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians C153 Drafting technologists and technicians C154 Land survey technologists and technicians C155 Mapping and related technologists and technicians G412 Cooks H111 Plumbers H112 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers H121 Carpenters H212 Industrial electricians H326 Welders and related machine operators H411 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics (except textile) H412 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics H611 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) H622 Drillers and blasters — Surface mining, quarrying and construction H711 Truck drivers H821 Construction trades helpers and labourers H822 Other trades helpers and labourers I121 Supervisors, mining and quarrying I131 I141 I214 Underground production and development miners Underground mine service and support workers Mine labourers J011 Supervisors, mineral and metal processing J121 Machine operators, mineral and metal processing J311 Labourers in mineral and metal processing 33 A complete list of NOC-S codes can be found on the Statistics Canada website at www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm 2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts 51
Page 1 and 2:
Canadian Mining Industry Employment
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables and Figures Table 1
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary The Canadian mini
Page 9 and 10: Table 1 Total Hiring Requirements F
Page 11: Occupational Forecasts of Employmen
Page 14 and 15: Background A main strategic objecti
Page 16 and 17: The NOC-S system 4 was developed by
Page 18 and 19: Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals
Page 20 and 21: Figure 3 Labour Productivity and Em
Page 22 and 23: under-represented groups. As noted
Page 24 and 25: Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly W
Page 26 and 27: Results from MiHR’s 2010 National
Page 28 and 29: Figure 11 Proportion of Mining Work
Page 30 and 31: In 2010, Women in Mining (WIM) Cana
Page 32 and 33: Immigrants to Canada — particular
Page 34 and 35: • an online portal where stakehol
Page 36 and 37: Table 7 presents the cumulative cha
Page 38 and 39: Table 9 Cumulative Hiring Requireme
Page 40 and 41: The top occupations in terms of hir
Page 42 and 43: if metal and mineral prices decline
Page 44 and 45: As shown in Figure 17, changes in e
Page 46 and 47: Figure 18 Total Hiring Requirements
Page 48 and 49: Table 17 Cumulative Hiring Requirem
Page 50 and 51: Table 20 shows the occupations with
Page 53 and 54: 4 Discussion In the near future, th
Page 55: Appendix A This appendix outlines t
Page 60: www.mihr.ca • www.mininghrforecas
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