Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

In general, model development research demonstrates that most variations in mining employment result from a
combination of changes in metal and mineral prices, and in labour productivity. More precisely, the number of mining
jobs is strongly related to commodity price levels, changes in productivity levels and the previous year’s employment.
There is a strong positive correlation between commodity prices and employment, offset by a negative correlation
between labour productivity and employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise, employment levels increase;
whereas when labour productivity levels rise, employment levels decrease. Forecasts of hiring requirements require
information on non-retirement separation rates and the average retirement age, in conjunction with age distribution
of the mining workforce.
Consensus forecasts with low, medium and high outlooks for commodity prices were blended to create the contractionary,
baseline and expansionary projections. It is assumed that both the non-retirement separation rate (set at 2 per cent)
and the median retirement age (set at 59.5 years) will remain constant in all three scenarios over the entire forecast
period. 24 Labour productivity estimates, however, vary over the forecast period, based on projected economic changes
affecting productivity. Combining the contractionary, baseline and expansionary scenarios for commodity prices and
labour productivity with respect to each of the employment drivers used in the model, yields projections for changes
in employment in each of the six regions in Canada between 2010 and 2020.
Retirement rates are calculated based on the age distribution of the mining workforce for each region, assuming a
retirement age of 59.5 years. For Canada as a whole, retirement rates will increase rapidly from 1.9 per cent in 2010
to 3.5 per cent in 2020. Based on the current age structure of their mining workforces, the provinces with the highest
anticipated retirement rates by 2020 are Ontario (4.7 per cent) and Quebec (4.3 per cent). The lowest rates are in the
Territories (2.8 per cent) and the Prairies (2.7 per cent). As noted above, these differences reflect the current age profile
of the mining workforce in each of the regions.
Total hiring requirements in any given year are defined as the sum of (i) the change in the number of jobs in the industry
due to selected economic factors (changes in commodity prices and productivity) (ii) the number of workers who retire,
and (iii) the number of workers who leave the industry for other reasons.
National Hiring Requirements Forecasts
Forecasts for Canada are produced by aggregating the changes in employment and hiring requirements of the six regions
considered in this study. 25
Employment in the Canadian mining industry is expected to continue to decline over the forecast period, due to continuous
gains in labour productivity and essentially zero growth in commodity prices. However, given the age composition of
the industry, projected retirements and historical non-retirement separation rates, the forecast calls for cumulative hiring
requirements of more than half of the current industry workforce by 2020.
24 Readers are advised that an employment and hiring requirements forecasting tool for mining is available at www.mininghrforecasts.ca that allows users
to vary these assumptions and see the impact on the resulting forecasts.
25 Forecasting models were developed for all six regions of Canada. No specific model was built for Canada as a whole.
2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts
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