Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

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Background A main strategic objective of the Mining Industry Human Resources Council (MiHR) is to increase industry stakeholders’ ability to understand, anticipate and plan for labour supply and demand requirements. MiHR does this by providing high-quality labour market information; regional and occupational hiring forecasts; and human resources management based research. As part of this commitment, the Mining Industry Workforce Information Network (MIWIN) — the source of the most extensive research and analysis available on Canada’s mining labour market — provides regular forecasts of hiring needs for the Canadian mining industry. One of MIWIN’s key activities is to produce model-based forecasts of changes in employment and hiring requirements. The purpose of the study reported here is to forecast changes in employment and hiring requirements over two, five and 10 years, with particular emphasis on national, regional and occupational demands. This report expands on previous research and forecasts (conducted in 2008 and 2009) that examined the dynamics of the mining labour markets in British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Ontario. The forecasts presented in this report analyze three different economic scenarios: contractionary, baseline and expansionary. Each scenario generates a projection of changes in employment and hiring requirements from 2010 to 2020. This report also presents results from MiHR’s 2010 National Employer Survey, which complements the model-based forecasts and provides key demographics from a representative sample of mining industry employers. To date, the supply side of the labour market and speculations on the gap between labour supply and demand, are not explicitly considered in MiHR forecasts. However, MiHR has begun research to investigate labour supply in the mining industry. Such ongoing improvements are an integral part of the MIWIN program, and labour supply will be included in future forecast reports. Overview of the Report This report is organized into two main sections. It begins with an overview of Canada’s mining industry followed by national and regional forecasts of changes in employment and hiring requirements over a two-, five- and 10-year horizon. The forecasts also include estimates of hiring needs for key occupational groups. Chapter 2 begins with a definition and scope of the mining industry, which is used in the subsequent labour market analyses and forecasts. The definition is followed by discussion of labour market trends in terms of employment, turnover, productivity, educational attainment, the aging workforce, and diversity. Results from MiHR’s 2010 National Employer Survey, along with other industry research, illustrate the trends throughout the section. The report also discusses issues related to a tight labour market and making the best use of all possible sources of labour. This section sets the stage and describes the context for the forecasts that follow. Chapter 3 begins with a brief review of the key assumptions adopted to produce forecasts of total employment and hiring requirements under contractionary, baseline and expansionary scenarios. The review is followed with forecasts of hiring requirements both on a national and regional basis, as well as occupational breakdowns. Appendix A provides details on forecast methodology. The report concludes with a high-level discussion of the findings (Chapter 4) and offers some suggestions for future directions in meeting the industry’s workforce needs. MiHR’s recommended approach to addressing current and existing human resources challenges in the industry is used as a framework for the discussion. 8 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network
2 Overview of the Canadian Mining Workforce The Canadian mining industry faces several labour-market challenges. Despite impressive increases in the participation of under-represented groups, employers are still faced with an aging workforce and a looming labour shortage. To proactively address these challenges and meet future hiring requirements, the industry must first maximize and make the best use of all available sources of labour, and second, increase its productivity through investments in training and skills development, coupled with improving the foundation for innovation and technological advances. A first step in developing these strategies is to review the current context and demographic profile of the industry’s workforce. This chapter begins with a brief definition and overview of economic conditions in Canada’s mining industry. The chapter then explores various labour market trends that impact on the quantity and quality of labour, including employment, turnover, productivity, educational attainment, compensation, labour relations, retirement projections and diversity. Findings from MiHR’s 2010 National Employer Survey are also presented throughout, along with other industry research that illustrates the issues discussed. Definition and Economic Overview of the Canadian Mining Industry Industry Definition and Scope Statistics Canada, the main source of Canada’s labour market information, uses two different coding systems to classify data: the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and the National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S). Both systems provide a hierarchical structure that divides higher-level categories into more detailed categories in order to group similar establishments and individuals. NAICS 3 codes are used by statistical agencies throughout North America to describe economic and business activity at the industry level. This system features a production-oriented framework where assignment to a specific industry is based on primary activity, enabling groupings of establishments with similar activities. 3 The definitions for the North American Industrial Classification System (2007) are taken from: http://stds.statcan.gc.ca/naics-scian/2007/cs-rc-eng.asp?criteria=212 2010 Employment and Hiring Forecasts 9
Page 1 and 2: Canadian Mining Industry Employment
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6: List of Tables and Figures Table 1
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary The Canadian mini
Page 9 and 10: Table 1 Total Hiring Requirements F
Page 11: Occupational Forecasts of Employmen
Page 16 and 17: The NOC-S system 4 was developed by
Page 18 and 19: Table 4 Canada’s Top 10 Minerals
Page 20 and 21: Figure 3 Labour Productivity and Em
Page 22 and 23: under-represented groups. As noted
Page 24 and 25: Figure 7 Average Benchmark Hourly W
Page 26 and 27: Results from MiHR’s 2010 National
Page 28 and 29: Figure 11 Proportion of Mining Work
Page 30 and 31: In 2010, Women in Mining (WIM) Cana
Page 32 and 33: Immigrants to Canada — particular
Page 34 and 35: • an online portal where stakehol
Page 36 and 37: Table 7 presents the cumulative cha
Page 38 and 39: Table 9 Cumulative Hiring Requireme
Page 40 and 41: The top occupations in terms of hir
Page 42 and 43: if metal and mineral prices decline
Page 44 and 45: As shown in Figure 17, changes in e
Page 46 and 47: Figure 18 Total Hiring Requirements
Page 48 and 49: Table 17 Cumulative Hiring Requirem
Page 50 and 51: Table 20 shows the occupations with
Page 53 and 54: 4 Discussion In the near future, th
Page 55 and 56: Appendix A This appendix outlines t
Page 57 and 58: Appendix B This Appendix lists the
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