Canadian Mining Industry Employment and Hiring Forecasts - MiHR

Several indicators were considered, based on their potential to explain changes in the level of employment in the mining
industry at the regional level. Time series data was collected and plotted with respect to employment. Potential explanatory
variables included:
• Real compensation per hour worked
• Real level of production
• Industrial Materials Commodity Price Index
• Minerals Price Index
• Selected Commodity Price Indices such as gold and nickel (among others)
• Labour productivity (real GDP per hour worked)
Employment series for the mining industry were obtained from Statistics Canada. 31 Due to confidentiality rules,
employment data is suppressed for various provinces and territories and was thus available only at higher level
of aggregation. Model development was therefore restricted to the following regions:
• Atlantic
• Quebec
• Ontario
• Prairies
• British Columbia
• Territories
Employment series dating back to 1984 were used in the creation of the employment models for the six regions.
Furthermore, suppression of some provincial production data precluded the development of a weighted commodity price
index specific to each region, as originally planned. However, in select cases where it was known that certain commodities
represent a large proportion of the provincial total (for example iron ore in Quebec), individual price indices were used
as explanatory variables. In all other cases, the Bank of Canada’s weighted Minerals Price Index was used. 32
In general, it was found that metal and mineral prices in conjunction with labour productivity (to explain longer-term
trends in employment) were the most statistically significant at explaining variations in the mining employment series.
More precisely, the number of mining jobs in each region is strongly related to commodity price levels, labour productivity
levels and the previous year’s employment. There is a positive correlation between commodity prices and employment,
and a negative correlation between labour productivity and employment. In other words, when commodity prices rise,
employment levels increase, whereas labour productivity increases lead to a decrease in employment levels. Note that
the previous year’s employment was also positively related to current employment.
31 Employment data was obtained through Special Aggregations from Productivity Measures, Income and Expenditure Accounts Division, Statistics Canada,
February 2009.
32 The Bank of Canada’s Minerals Price Index includes the following components: gold; silver; nickel; copper; aluminum; zinc; potash; lead; and iron.
50 Mining Industry Workforce Information Network