International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

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U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011 Highlights largest increment in world net installed nuclear power from 2008 to 2035: China adds 106 gigawatts of nuclear capacity over the period, Russia 28 gigawatts, and India 24 gigawatts. World delivered energy use by sector This section discusses delivered energy use in the buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors; it does not include losses associated with electricity generation and transmission. Residential and commercial buildings World residential energy use increases by 1.1 percent per year, from 52 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 69 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the IEO2011 Reference case. Much of the growth in residential energy consumption occurs in non-OECD nations, where robust economic growth improves standards of living and increases demand for residential energy. One factor contributing to increased demand in non-OECD nations is the trend toward replacing nonmarketed energy sources (including wood and waste, which are not fully included in the energy demand totals shown in the IEO) with marketed fuels, such as propane and electricity, for cooking and heating. Non-OECD residential energy consumption rises by 1.9 percent per year, compared with the much slower rate of 0.3 percent per year for OECD countries, where patterns of residential energy use already are well established, and slower population growth and aging populations translate to smaller increases in energy demand. Globally, IEO2011 projects average growth in commercial energy use of 1.5 percent per year through 2035, with the largest share of growth in non-OECD nations. OECD commercial energy use expands by 0.8 percent per year. Slow expansion of GDP and low or declining population growth in many OECD nations contribute to slower anticipated rates of growth in commercial energy demand. In addition, continued efficiency improvements moderate the growth of energy demand over time, as relatively inefficient equipment is replaced with newer, more efficient stock. In non-OECD nations, economic activity and commerce increase rapidly over the 2008-2035 projection period, fueling additional demand for energy in the service sectors. Total delivered commercial energy use among non-OECD nations is projected to grow by 2.8 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. Population growth also is expected to be more rapid than in OECD countries, portending increases in the need for education, health care, and social services and the energy required to provide them. In addition, as developing nations mature, they are expected to transition to more service-related enterprises, which will increase demand for energy in the commercial sector. Industrial Worldwide, industrial energy consumption grows from 191 quadrillion Btu in 2008 to 288 quadrillion Btu in 2035 in the Reference case. The industrial sector accounted for much of the recession-related reduction in energy use in 2009, primarily because of a substantial decline in manufacturing output that had a more pronounced impact on energy use in the industrial sector than in other sectors. In the Reference case, national economic growth rates and energy consumption patterns are projected to return to historical trends by 2015. Non-OECD economies account for about 89 percent of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption in the Reference case (Figure 8). Rapid economic growth is projected for the non-OECD countries, accompanied by rapid growth in their combined total industrial energy consumption, averaging 2.0 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. Because OECD nations have been undergoing a transition from manufacturing economies to service economies in recent decades, and have relatively slow projected growth in economic output, industrial energy use in the OECD region as a whole grows by an average of only 0.5 percent per year from 2008 to 2035. Figure 7. World nuclear generating capacity, 2008 and 2035 (gigawatts) China Russia OECD Asia India OECD Americas OECD Europe Other non-OECD Other Asia Other non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 2008 2035 0 50 100 150 200 Figure 8. World industrial delivered energy consumption, 2008-2035 (quadrillion Btu) 300 200 100 0 191 Non-OECD OECD 216 232 250 269 288 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 5
6 Highlights Transportation Energy use in the transportation sector includes the energy consumed in moving people and goods by road, rail, air, water, and pipeline. The transportation sector is second only to the industrial sector in terms of total end-use energy consumption. The transportation share of world total liquids consumption increases from 54 percent in 2008 to 60 percent in 2035 in the IEO2011 Reference case, accounting for 82 percent of the total increase in world liquids consumption. Thus, understanding the development of transportation energy use is the most important factor in assessing future trends in demand for liquid fuels. World oil prices reached historically high levels in 2008, in part because of a strong increase in demand for transportation fuels, particularly in emerging non-OECD economies. Non-OECD energy use for transportation increased by 4.1 percent in 2007 and 6.4 percent in 2008, before the impact of the 2008-2009 global economic recession resulted in a slowdown in transportation sector activity. Even in 2009, non-OECD transportation energy use grew by an estimated 3.3 percent, in part because many non- OECD countries (in particular, but not limited to, the oil-rich nations) provide fuel subsidies to their citizens. With robust economic recovery expected to continue in China, India, and other non-OECD nations, growing demand for raw materials, manufactured goods, and business and personal travel is projected to support fast-paced growth in energy use for transportation both in the short term and over the long term. In the IEO2011 Reference case, non-OECD transportation energy use grows by 2.6 percent per year from 2008 to 2035 (Figure 9). High oil prices and the economic recession had more profound impacts in the OECD economies than in the non-OECD economies. OECD energy use for transportation declined by an estimated 1.6 percent in 2008, followed by a further decrease estimated at 1.8 percent in 2009, before recovering to 0.7-percent growth in 2010. Indications are that the return of high world oil prices and comparatively slow recovery from the recession in several key OECD nations will mean that transportation energy demand will continue to grow slowly in the near to mid-term. Moreover, the United States and some of the other OECD countries have instituted a number of policy measures to increase the fuel efficiency of their vehicle fleets. OECD transportation energy use grows by only 0.3 percent per year over the entire projection period. World carbon dioxide emissions World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from 30.2 billion metric tons in 2008 to 35.2 billion metric tons in 2020 and 43.2 billion metric tons in 2035—an increase of 43 percent over the projection period. With strong economic growth and continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels expected for most non-OECD economies under current policies, much of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions occurs among the developing non-OECD nations. In 2008, non-OECD emissions exceeded OECD emissions by 24 percent; in 2035, they are projected to exceed OECD emissions by more than 100 percent. Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection (Figure 10). Carbon intensity of output—the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output—is a common measure used in analysis of changes in carbon dioxide emissions, and it is sometimes used as a standalone measure for tracking progress in relative emissions reductions. Energy-related carbon dioxide intensities improve (decline) in all IEO regions over the projection period, as economies continue to use energy more efficiently. Estimated carbon dioxide intensity declines by 1.8 percent per year in the OECD economies and by 2.4 percent per year in the non-OECD economies from 2008 to 2035. Another measure of emissions intensity that can be useful for comparing emissions trends across countries is carbon dioxide emissions per capita. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita in OECD economies are significantly higher than those in non-OECD economies (Figure 11). OECD countries have higher levels of carbon dioxide emissions per capita, in part because of their higher Figure 9. World transportation delivered energy consumption, 2008-2035 (quadrillion Btu) 150 100 50 0 98 Non-OECD OECD 112 120 129 136 142 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 10. World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel, 1990-2035 (billion metric tons) 0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2011 50 40 30 20 10 History 2008 Projections Liquids Coal Natural gas
Page 2 and 3: Contacts The International Energy O
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Page 6 and 7: Contents Highlights ...............
Page 8 and 9: Figures (continued) U.S. Energy Inf
Page 10 and 11: Highlights In the IEO2011 Reference
Page 16 and 17: levels of income and fossil fuel us
Page 18 and 19: Chapter 1 World energy demand and e
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U.S. Energy Information Administrat
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References for natural gas Links cu
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Chapter 4 Coal Overview In the IEO2
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decline substantially over the proj
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demand for steel in both domestic a
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Table 9. World coal flows by import
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Europe, Middle East, and Africa In
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process could impede or delay those
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References for coal Links current a
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Mechel OAO Commences Construction o
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Chapter 5 Electricity Overview In t
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Chapter 6 Industrial sector energy
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References for industrial sector en
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Chapter 7 Transportation sector ene
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Chapter 8 Energy-related carbon dio
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Table 18. Average annual changes in
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Data Sources Links current as of Ju
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Appendix A Reference case projectio
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Table A1. World total primary energ
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Table A2. World total energy consum
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Table A4. World gross domestic prod
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Table A6. World natural gas consump
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Table A8. World nuclear energy cons
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Table A10. World carbon dioxide emi
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Table A12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Table A14. World population by regi
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Appendix B High Oil Price case proj
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Table B1. World total primary energ
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Table B4. World liquids consumption
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Table B6. World coal consumption by
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Table B8. World consumption of hydr
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Table B12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Appendix C Low Oil Price case proje
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Table C1. World total primary energ
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Table C4. World liquids consumption
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Table C6. World coal consumption by
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Table C8. World consumption of hydr
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Table C12. World carbon dioxide emi
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Appendix D Reference case projectio
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Reference case projections by end-u
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Appendix E Projections of liquid fu
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Projections of liquid fuels and oth
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Table E11. World conventional liqui
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Table E14. World conventional liqui
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Appendix F Reference case projectio
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Reference case projections for elec
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Appendix G Reference case projectio
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Table G1. World total natural gas p
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Table G3. World other natural gas p
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Appendix H Kaya Identity factor pro
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Table H1. World population by regio
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Table H3. World energy intensity by
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Appendix I Comparisons with Interna
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Comparisons with International Ener
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Appendix J Models used to generate
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Appendix K Regional definitions The
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International Energy Outlook 2011 - EIA

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